Q3 收入端略有降速，大众价位产品持续发力，省外环比降速。公司Q3 收入/利润分别同增11.4%/10.4%，受汾享礼遇费用兑付节奏影响、利润端增速略低于收入，整体符合预期。分产品看，24Q1-Q3 中高价酒类/其他酒类收入分别同增14.3%/26.9%（单Q3 分别同增6.7%/25.6%，结构持续承压）。结合渠道反馈，前三季度青20 维持20%左右增长，青30 和省内的青25 持续控量调整增速下滑，腰部老白汾、巴拿马加强发力下累计增速均在20%以上，玻汾增速20%+，放量后批价有一定回落。分区域看，省内大本营Q3 同增12.1%保持稳健，省外环比降速至10.9%（Q1 同增27.6%，Q2 同增21.8%），Q3 经销商净增加172 家，判断主要系省外新增核心终端店所致。Matters:
The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. In the first three quarters, it achieved revenue of 31.36 billion yuan, an increase of 17.2%, and net profit to mother of 11.35 billion yuan, an increase of 20.3%; single Q3 revenue of 8.61 billion yuan, an increase of 11.4%; and net profit to mother of 2.94 billion yuan, an increase of 10.4%. Sales payback in Q3 was 8.56 billion yuan, up 30.8%; net operating cash flow was 3.5 billion yuan, up 67.2%; contract liabilities at the end of Q3 were 5.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.25 billion yuan compared to the end of Q2.
Commentary:
Q3 The revenue side decelerated slightly. Popular price products continued to gain strength, and outside the province decelerated month-on-month. The company's Q3 revenue/profit increased by 11.4%/10.4% respectively. Affected by the pace of payment of Fen's benefits, the profit side growth rate was slightly lower than revenue, which was in line with expectations overall. By product, revenue from high-priced alcohol/other alcoholic beverages in 24Q1-Q3 increased by 14.3%/26.9% respectively (single Q3 increased 6.7%/25.6%, respectively, and the structure continued to be under pressure). Combined with channel feedback, Qing20 maintained growth of around 20% in the first three quarters. Qing30 and Qing25 in the province continued to control and adjust the decline in growth. The cumulative growth rate was above 20% due to increased strength from Waifen and Panama, and the growth rate of Bofen was 20% +. After the volume was released, the price dropped to a certain extent. Looking at the subregion, Q3, which is the main base of the province, remained steady with a 12.1% increase. Outside the province, the rate decelerated to 10.9% (Q1 increased 27.6%, Q2 increased 21.8%), and there was a net increase of 172 dealers in Q3. Judging that this was mainly due to the addition of new core terminal stores outside the province.
The high increase in cash flow was impressive, and the profit side was relatively stable. The company's Q3 sales repayments increased significantly faster than revenue by 30.8%, and net operating cash flow increased by 67.2%, which was mainly due to an increase in cash received from repayments and bank acceptance notes. The contract debt at the end of Q3 was 5.48 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.25 billion yuan compared to the end of Q2, which was relatively stable. In terms of profit levels, gross margin/net margin increased by 0.1/0.9 pct respectively in the first three quarters. There was a slight decline in Q3, and the impact of short-term pace adjustments was limited. The gross margin for single Q3 fell by 0.7 pct to 74.3%, mainly due to the decline in the product structure of Bofen/Laobaifen after increasing launch. On the tax rate side, the sales tax rate also decreased by 1.4 pcts. Taking into account the impact of the quarterly tax rate, the sales expenses rate decreased slightly by 0.1 pct, and the management expenses rate increased by 0.6 pct. Overall, the net interest rate to mother was 34.1%, and the same decrease of 0.3 pcts was basically steady.
The flexibility and certainty of performance during the year is fair, and the next year may decelerate steadily to pursue high-quality growth. Looking at the same time during the year, the company's revenue/profit increased by 17.2%/20.3% in the first three quarters, and achieved high growth in Q1. In an environment where external demand weakens, the company maintains strength in terms of strategy and actively reduces the pace of shipment and adjusts the product structure. Currently, the repayment schedule is 85% flat. Channel indicators such as price and inventory are still healthy, and channel confidence has rebounded after Q3 Fen benefits are being realized faster. It is expected that the completion of the remaining repayment is still guaranteed, and positive growth of 15%-20% will be achieved throughout the year. Q2-Q3 Looking ahead to next year, the company's reporting side may pragmatically slow down to a low double-digit growth rate. The waist product Laobaifen/Panama may continue to grow flexibly. After production capacity bottlenecks are mitigated, sales of Bofen and more products may gradually increase.
Investment advice: Channel quality is superior to peers. If demand improves, it is expected to take the lead in releasing elasticity and maintaining a “strong push” rating. During the demand pressure period, the company's strategy is to pragmatically adjust the product structure and prioritize channel health. Currently, channel quality is still superior to peers. In the medium to long term, the company's brand advantage and fragrance differentiation advantage are still there. There is still room for high-end and nationalization, and the current channel inventory burden is not heavy. It is expected to take the lead in a steady recovery and release elasticity after external demand improves. According to the latest business situation, we have slightly adjusted our profit forecast. We expect EPS to be 10.24/11.66/12.95 yuan for 24-26 (the original forecast value was 10.67/12.56/14.51 yuan), maintaining a target price of 285 yuan, corresponding to about 24 times PE in 25 years, maintaining a “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: Economic recovery falls short of expectations, competition intensifies, and nationalization and high-end processes fall short of expectations.
