汽贸业态增长承压：重庆地区，24Q3 百货业态收入4.13 亿，同比-14.6%，超市业态收入16.82 亿，同比-0.2%，电器业态收入7.59 亿元，同比+4.4%，汽贸业态收入10.50 亿，同比-33.6%。Incident: Chongqing Department Store released its 24Q3 earnings report.
① 2024Q1-3: Revenue of 13.004 billion yuan, -12.0% YoY; net profit to mother 0.923 billion yuan, -19.24% YoY.
② 2024Q3: Revenue of 4.024 billion yuan, -12.96%; net profit to mother of 0.211 billion yuan, -12.43% year-on-year. The decline was mainly due to the impact of the continuous high temperature weather and phased power restriction measures that set a record in Chongqing in July-September.
Automobile trade growth is under pressure: in Chongqing, 24Q3 department store revenue was 0.413 billion yuan, -14.6% year over year; supermarket revenue was 1.682 billion yuan, -0.2% year over year; electrical appliance revenue was 0.759 billion yuan, +4.4% year over year; auto trade revenue was 1.05 billion yuan, or -33.6% year over year.
Gross margin and expenses: 24Q3 gross profit margin 24.36%, year-on-year -0.85pcts, sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were 15.24%/5.02%/0.08%/0.34%, respectively, with a year-on-year change of +0.98pcts/-0.58pcts/-0.05pcts/-0.21pcts.
The trade-in policy led to a significant increase in store sales. Since the launch of the trade-in policy, 350 physical stores under Zhongbai Electric participated in the event. The number of visitors to each store has exploded, and sales have increased by more than 70% over the same period last year. During the National Day Golden Week, sales of Zhongbai Electric Appliances exceeded 0.2 billion yuan, an increase of 115% over the previous year. Among them, air conditioning, color TV, and ice washing categories performed the best, increasing by 241%, 113%, and 100%, respectively.
Profit forecasting and valuation: The company's four major business formats, electrical appliances, auto trade, supermarkets, and department stores, are quite well-known in the Sichuan and Chongqing region. The market size is leading, the competitiveness is strong, and the network is dense. The company actively embraces changes in the retail industry, and its supermarket business continues to promote regulation. At the same time, participating in consumer finance has also contributed significantly to profits. The overall forecast is that the company's net profit for 2024-2025 is 1.26 billion/1.34 billion yuan, corresponding to 7.6x/7.2xPE, maintaining a “highly recommended” rating.
Risk warning: business expansion falls short of expectations, consumption recovery falls short of expectations, investment returns fall short of expectations
