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新华保险(601336):股债双牛带动投资端利润弹性释放 不应忽视负债端亮眼表现

Xinhua Insurance (601336): Equities and bonds drive the release of flexible profits on the investment side, and we should not ignore the outstanding performance of the debt side

tianfeng Securities ·  Oct 31

Incident: The company achieved net profit of 9.6 billion yuan in a single quarter of 24Q3, reversing losses year-on-year (same period in '-0.44 billion yuan); net profit to mother of 20.68 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 24, +117% year-on-year.

Investment side: Equity and debt have driven a sharp improvement in the company's return on investment margins, contributing to the greatest increase in performance.

As of 24Q3, the company's total annualized return on investment was 6.8% (+4.5Pct compared to the same period in '23), and the annualized comprehensive return on investment was 8.1% (+5.1 Pct compared to the same period in '23). The company's investment income+interest income+fair value change profit and loss totaled 70.63 billion yuan, a significant increase of 233.5% over the same period in '23. It is expected that bond prices will continue to rise over 24 years and the sharp rise in the equity market at the end of September are the main reasons for the significant improvement on the investment side.

Premium income and new business value: The debt side continues to develop with high quality, and the growth rate of new business value is impressive.

In the first three quarters of 24, long-term insurance first-year premium income was 24.75 billion yuan, +12.3% year over year (24H -11.4%, growth rate up 23.7 Pct), with significant improvement in Q3; of these, 10-year and above premium income was 3.08 billion yuan, +21.3% year over year (+16.3% year over 24H, growth rate up 5.0 Pct). The ten-year business led to continuous improvement in the debt-side structure; the value of the new business increased 79.2% year over year (+57.7% year over year over 24H), growth rate (Increase of 21.5 Pct), the value growth rate led the premium growth rate, and high-quality development was achieved on the debt side.

1) Individual insurance channels: The premium payment for the first year of long-term insurance was 11.98 billion yuan, +18.8% year over year, and the growth rate increased by 14.7% over 24H. The scale of high-performing manpower increased year-on-year in the third quarter, with a sharp increase in per capita production capacity; 2) Banking insurance channels: long-term insurance first-year premium payment of 12.66 billion yuan, +6.3% year over year, and the bank insurance term growth rate changed positive (24H growth rate was -24.9%), which was the main reason for the correction in the company's overall term premium growth rate in the first three quarters; the transaction scale was 8.89 billion yuan, -46% year over year. The company explored dividend product sales in the third quarter, gradually enriching the supply of diversified products.

Investment advice: If the equity market market is expected to further release flexibility on the company's investment side, FVTPL (changes in fair value included in profit and loss) assets account for a higher share of the company's financial asset allocation structure in the industry, and flexibility may become more obvious. Currently, the company's valuation is 0.6xPEV, and I am optimistic that there will be room for further valuation repair in the future. The future will focus on index growth, long-term bond yields, and debt-side dividend insurance sales.

Risk warning: capital markets continue to fluctuate; long-term interest rates continue to decline; debt-side performance falls short of expectations

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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