2024Q3 受军事通信行业周期性波动影响，新产品的订单下达节奏不及预期，导致收入同比下滑，受产品结构及期间费用等影响，净利润由盈转亏。公司1.5 代通信电台产品在2021 年完成定型，后续持续进行改进改型，批产订单下达节奏低于预期，同时1.0 代产品的需求逐年同比下滑，导致公司2024Q3 收入角度同比下滑。受审价等因素影响，公司部分新产品盈利能力相对偏弱，整体收入中毛利较低的产品占比增大，牵引整体毛利率出现下滑。Description of the event
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 0.408 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.93%, and realized net profit to mother of -0.94 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 194.37%.
Incident comments
2024Q3 was affected by cyclical fluctuations in the military communications industry. The pace of placing orders for new products fell short of expectations, leading to a year-on-year decline in revenue. Affected by product structure and period expenses, etc., net profit changed from profit to loss. The company's 1.5 generation communication radio products were finalized in 2021, and continuous improvements and modifications were carried out thereafter. The pace of batch orders was lower than expected, while demand for 1.0 generation products declined year by year, leading to a year-on-year decline in the company's 2024Q3 revenue perspective. Affected by factors such as price reviews, the profitability of some of the company's new products is relatively weak. The share of products with low gross profit in overall revenue has increased, leading to a decline in overall gross margin.
During the 2024Q3 reporting period, the company firmly laid out research and development to ensure the sustainability of subsequent products, which led to a sharp increase in expenses during the period. At the same time, the increase in accounts receivable led to an increase in credit impairment losses, and 2024Q3 changed from profit to loss. The military communications circuit where the company is located is rapidly iterating technology, and the company needs continuous high investment to guarantee its technological leadership. Therefore, the company firmly invests in high R&D expenses, but at the same time, it also led to a sharp increase in the 2024Q3 R&D cost rate. At the same time, management expenses also increased dramatically, and the management fee ratio increased dramatically from month to month. The main reason is that the scale of revenue is reduced and operating management costs are difficult to reduce rapidly. Furthermore, the company's accounts receivable balance reached a record high. The company accrued credit impairment losses based on prudential principles, which ultimately led the company to change profits to losses in 2024Q3.
2024Q3 Due to fluctuating demand, the quality of downstream repayment has decreased significantly, but the company's inventory is still high. Waiting for the subsequent boom, it can be delivered quickly to guarantee supply. In 2023, the cash received by the company from selling products and providing services continued to increase quarterly. 2023Q1-Q4 received 3.73, 0.475, 0.631, and 1.231 billion yuan respectively, but the cash received continued to decrease in 2024Q1-Q3, 0.626, 0.474, and 0.308 billion yuan, respectively, indicating fluctuations in downstream demand and continuous decline in repayment quality. However, the company's inventory balance is still high. It is expected that the economy will continue to rise, and the company can quickly deliver guaranteed supply.
Profit forecast and valuation: The company is expected to achieve net profit of 0.2, 0.4, and 0.7 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -55%, 100%, and 75%, corresponding to PE 71, 36, and 20 times, respectively.
Risk warning
1. Demand is not issued in a timely manner;
2. The risk of production capacity expansion falling short of expectations.
