Ginlong Technologies Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300763) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.7% to CN¥71.97 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenue of CN¥1.8b beat expectations by an impressive 30%, while statutory earnings per share (EPS) were CN¥1.95, in line with estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following the latest results, Ginlong Technologies' seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥10.2b in 2025. This would be a sizeable 55% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 91% to CN¥3.34. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥10.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥3.48 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥62.28, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ginlong Technologies at CN¥71.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥52.96. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ginlong Technologies' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 42% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 33% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Ginlong Technologies to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Ginlong Technologies. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥62.28, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Ginlong Technologies analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 5 warning signs for Ginlong Technologies you should be aware of, and 3 of them can't be ignored.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
