盈利预测和投资建议。我们认为，中长期看，公司完成芯片设计端的声、光、电全领域布局，下游客户从手机逐步拓展至可穿戴、智能家居、汽车等新市场，有望逐步提供基于全产品线的完整芯片解决方案。基于公司基本面受益于行业景气复苏(预计24 年毛利率回升)以及新品持续起量（eg.超声波指纹传感器凭借优异的信噪比及识别性能，已在头部手机客户正式量产并将陆续导入新客户项目中）释放增长动能，同时公司库存去化效果显著和加强三费管控，我们预计汇顶科技2024 年至2026 年EPS 分别为1.51、1.69、1.89 元。Incident: 1-3Q24 achieved operating income of 3.223 billion yuan (YoY +0.82%), realized net profit of 0.448 billion yuan (YoY +3499.30%), and deducted non-attributable net profit of 0.4 billion yuan. Looking at the split, 3Q24 achieved revenue of 0.967 billion yuan (YoY -17.71%); net profit attributable to mother 0.131 billion yuan (YoY -11.82%); net profit of 0.125 billion yuan (YoY -13.19%) after deducting non-attributable net profit.
Finance: The company's product iterations and wafer costs have declined, costs have been optimized, and the overall gross margin level has resumed growth. Q3 gross margin was 41.01%. At the same time, the company controlled the company's inventory at a reasonable level. The book value of inventory as of the end of 3Q24 was 0.619 billion yuan. The company focuses on R&D projects with obvious advantages and promising market prospects, and has achieved significant improvements in R&D efficiency. At the same time, the company continued to strengthen the control of expenses during the period. The total amount of the company's sales expenses, management expenses, financial expenses, and R&D expenses for the first three quarters decreased by 0.165 billion yuan year on year, down 15.6% year on year.
Business: The company's new products are progressing smoothly. The company's ultrasonic fingerprint sensors have achieved commercial mass production on Vivo and iQOO flagship models, and are expected to be used on a large scale in the fourth quarter; next-generation under-screen light sensors and NFC control chips have been successfully introduced into well-known mobile phone brand customer projects and are expected to be shipped on a large scale in the second half of the year; in July, the company released electrochemical simulation front-end (AFE) solutions for continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) products, and automotive-grade low-power Bluetooth SoC products, and is currently actively promoting customer introduction; New products such as products and low-energy Bluetooth SoCs for CGM products are under continuous development.
Profit forecasts and investment recommendations. We believe that in the medium to long term, the company has completed the layout of all fields of sound, light, and electricity on the chip design side, and downstream customers will gradually expand from mobile phones to new markets such as wearables, smart homes, and automobiles, and it is expected that they will gradually provide complete chip solutions based on the entire product line. Based on the company's fundamentals benefiting from the recovery of industry sentiment (gross margin is expected to pick up in 24 years) and the continued launch of new products (eg. ultrasonic fingerprint sensors have been officially mass-produced by leading mobile phone customers and will be introduced into new customer projects one after another) to release growth momentum. At the same time, the company's inventory removal effect is significant and three-fee control is strengthened, we expect Huiding Technology's 2024 to 2026 EPS to 1.51, 1.69, and 1.89 yuan respectively.
Considering the valuation level of comparable companies, the growth in the regional market where the company is located was given a 24-year PE valuation range of 55-60x, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 83.05-90.60 yuan, and a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning. The development of new products may require significant R&D support, there is a shortage of production capacity in foundries, and market competition is intensifying.
