Q3 现金流净流出收窄，财务费用侵蚀较多利润公司24Q1-3 毛利率为9.2%，同比-0.01pct，Q3 单季度毛利率为9.24%，同比-0.45pct。24Q1-3 公司期间费用率为5.33%，同比+0.63pct，其中销售、管理、研发、财务费用率同比分别-0.03、+0.01、+0.17、+0.48pct，Q3 单季度财务费用绝对值达到31.09 亿元，同比增加21.2 亿元，侵蚀了较多利润。24Q1-3 公司合计计提了26.59 亿元的资产及信用减值损失，同比少计提损失12.11 亿元。综合影响下24Q1-3 净利率为2.63%，同比-0.27pct。现金流方面，24Q1-3 公司CFO 净额为-890.18 亿元，同比多流出458.35 亿元，Q3 单季度净流出同比收窄165.0 亿元。24Q1-3 收现比、付现比同比分别-3.41pct、+1.06pct 至100.6%、111.2%。Performance continues to be under pressure, focusing on medium- to long-term investment value
The company's 24Q1-3 achieved operating income of 758.125 billion yuan, -5.99% YoY, net profit of 15.695 billion yuan YoY, -19.18% YoY, net profit of 14.776 billion yuan, YoY -19.84%, of which Q3 achieved revenue of 241.988 billion yuan in a single quarter, -8.82% YoY, net profit 3.793 billion yuan, net profit of 3.793 billion yuan YoY, +3.625 net profit Billions of yuan, -34.52% YoY. Revenue and profit for the third quarter were under pressure, and significant increases in financial expenses eroded more profits, making the decline in profit greater than the decline in revenue. As of the end of 24Q3, the company's unfinished contract amount was 7087.374 billion yuan, or +5.94% over the same period, about 6.23 times the revenue scale in '23. Against the backdrop of rising fiscal stimulus expectations, we are concerned about the speed of order carry-over of subsequent companies and the marginal improvement in fourth quarter results. Considering that the results for the first three quarters fell short of our previous expectations, we lowered our 24-26 net profit forecast to 21.9, 22, and 22.2 billion yuan (previous values were 27.3, 28.5, 29.8 billion yuan). As of the close of October 31, the company's dividend rate (TTM) was 3.9%. It is recommended to focus on the effects of subsequent company cost reduction, efficiency, and quality improvement measures on reporting quality, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Construction real estate continues to be under pressure. From the perspective of booming orders for water conservancy and water transportation and mining, 24Q1-3 signed a new contract of 1473.427 billion yuan, -17.51% compared to the same period. Among them, engineering contracting, investment and operation, green environmental protection, design consulting, industrial manufacturing, and material logistics were newly signed at 10407, 729, 1252, 13.9, 23.8, 118.2 billion yuan, respectively, -13.8, 118.2 billion yuan, year-on-year, -13.8%, -65.6%, +43.1%, -27.5%, +9.5%, and -17.9%, investment and operation categories Orders have declined rapidly, mainly due to a decrease in the total number of PPP project tenders, the company has accelerated the pace of green transformation, and green environmental protection orders have increased. Looking at the breakdown, orders for water conservancy and water transportation and mining increased rapidly, with +38.6% and +307.6% year-on-year respectively. The rest of the orders for railways, highways, urban rail, housing, municipal administration, airports, and power engineering declined, with -6.4%, -59.0%, -2.5%, -17.9%, -28.9%, -42.6%, and -9.3% year-on-year respectively. In terms of real estate business, 24Q1-3 signed a new real estate development contract of 61.345 billion yuan, a year-on-year sales contract of 59.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year sales contract amount of -20.0%, a year-on-year decline of nearly 40%, and the company's land acquisition pace has slowed. It is expected that the subsequent real estate business may continue to be under pressure. By region, the number of new domestic and overseas orders signed by 24Q1-3 was 1368.13 and 105.29 billion yuan, respectively, -18.03% and -10.12% compared with the previous year.
In Q3, net cash flow outflows narrowed, and financial expenses eroded more profit companies. 24Q1-3 gross margin was 9.2%, -0.01pct year on year. Q3 gross margin in a single quarter was 9.24%, -0.45 pct year on year. The 24Q1-3 company's cost ratio for the period was 5.33%, +0.63pct year on year. Among them, sales, management, R&D, and finance expenses were -0.03, +0.17, and +0.48pct, respectively. The absolute value of financial expenses in a single quarter in Q3 reached 3.109 billion yuan, an increase of 2.12 billion yuan over the previous year, eroding more profits. 24Q1-3 accrued a total of 2.659 billion yuan in asset and credit impairment losses, with a loss of 1.211 billion yuan less than the previous year. Under the combined influence, 24Q1-3 net margin was 2.63%, -0.27pct year over year. In terms of cash flow, the net CFO of 24Q1-3 was -89.018 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 45.835 billion yuan. The net outflow in the Q3 single quarter narrowed by 16.5 billion yuan year-on-year. The 24Q1-3 payout ratio and payout ratio were -3.41pct and +1.06pct to 100.6% and 111.2%, respectively.
Risk warning: The growth rate of infrastructure investment fell short of expectations, the carry-over of construction orders fell short of expectations, the restoration of overseas demand fell short of expectations, and the limited expansion of central enterprise projects had weakened their advantages.