Incident: The company achieved net profit of 66.245 billion yuan in 24Q3, +1767.1% year-on-year; net profit to mother of 104.52 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 24, +173.9% year-on-year.

Investment side: The sharp rise in the bond market and the stock market led to the release of investment income, and the interest rate center continued to decline, putting pressure on newly allocated fixed income assets.

In the first three quarters of '23, the company achieved a net investment income of 144.71 billion, +3.9% of the same caliber, and a net return on investment of 3.26%, -0.55Pct; achieved a total investment income of 261.42 billion yuan, +152.4% of the same caliber, and a total return on investment of 5.38%, +2.57 Pct compared to the same period in '23. We believe that the bond interest rate center continues to decline to suppress net investment income performance, but the rise in bond face prices combined with the equity market in the third quarter led to a sharp increase in the company's total investment income and led to the release of profit flexibility.

Premium income and new business value: There was a month-on-quarter improvement in Q3, and the number of individual insurers rebounded steadily.

In the first three quarters of 24 years, first-year premium income was 113.18 billion yuan, +6.8% year over year (24H -0.1%, growth rate up 6.9Pct), with significant improvement in Q3. Among them, first-year premium income of ten years and above was 52.56 billion yuan, +17.7% YoY (+9.4% YoY over 24H, up 8.3 Pct), accounting for 46.4% of first-year premiums, compared to +4.31Pct for the same period in '23. Growth rate, debt structure Continuous optimization; new business value +25.1% YoY (24H +18.6% YoY, growth rate increased by 6.5 Pct).

The company's manpower showed a steady recovery. In 24Q3, the company's total sales force was 0.694 million people (24H was 0.685 million people), and personal insurance sales manpower was 0.641 million people (24H was 0.629 million people); monthly first-year premiums paid by individual insurance channels rose 17.7% year-on-year, and team production capacity grew steadily on a high base.

Investment advice: In the new stage of high-quality capital market development and continuous long-term “patient capital” entry into the market, the capital market can be expected to work. Among the company's financial asset accounting methods, FVTPL (changes in fair value included in profit and loss) assets account for a high proportion of the industry, and profit flexibility brought about by rising equity assets will be more obvious. We adjusted 2024-2026 net profit to $114.3 billion, $122.6 billion, and $128.8 billion, or +441.2%, 7.3% and 5.1% YoY (+147%, 7.3%, and 5.1% YoY under the new accounting standards). The future will focus on index growth, long-term bond yields, and debt-side dividend insurance sales.

Risk warning: capital markets continue to fluctuate; long-term interest rates continue to decline; debt-side performance falls short of expectations