集体检修去库存，Q3 业绩底部震荡。8 月下旬，继麦芽酚后，三氯蔗糖在主流玩家停产检修去库存的背景下迎来价格上扬。根据百川盈孚，24Q3，公司食品添加剂中的核心产品三氯蔗糖、安赛蜜、甲基麦芽酚、乙基麦芽酚均价分别为13.21、3.53、9.76、7.71 万元/吨，同比-11.01%、-16.69%、+17.29%、+18.60%，环比+19.86%、-5.16%、+7.82%、+6.50%。虽然产品价格上涨明显，但是由于检修对费用端的拖累，公司业绩整体保持了底部震荡。值得注意的是，公司Q3约0.41 亿元的非经常性损益是金融资产/负债公允价值变动所带来的，我们认为可能与9 月底金融市场好转有关。Matters:
Jinhe Industrial released a report for the third quarter of 2024. 24Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 4.043 billion yuan, a year-on-year ratio of -1.24%, a net profit of 0.409 billion yuan, or -27.39% year-on-year, and realized net profit of 0.377 billion yuan after deduction of non-return to mother, or -21.91% year-on-year. Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 1.504 billion yuan, +6.04%/+13.54% YoY, realized net profit of 0.162 billion yuan, +1.17%/+37.51% YoY, realized net profit without deduction of 0.127 billion yuan, or -19.53%/-1.49% YoY.
Commentary:
Collective maintenance was removed from inventory, and the bottom of Q3 results fluctuated. In late August, after maltol, sucralose experienced a rise in price against the backdrop of mainstream players stopping production and maintenance and removing inventory. According to Baichuan Yingfu, 24Q3, the average prices of the company's core products sucralose, acesulfame, methylmaltol, and ethyl maltol were 13.21, 0.0353, 0.0976, 0.0771 million yuan/ton, respectively, -11.01%, -16.69%, +17.29%, +18.60%, +19.86%, +7.82%, +6.50% month-on-month. Although product prices have risen significantly, the overall performance of the company remained fluctuating at the bottom due to maintenance being dragged down on the cost side. It is worth noting that the company's non-recurring profit and loss of about 0.041 billion yuan in Q3 was caused by changes in the fair value of financial assets/liabilities. We think it may be related to the improvement in the financial market at the end of September.
Demand prospects are good, and Q4 is expected to deliver on price increases. In 2024, major producers of maltol stopped production and removed inventory, and product prices continued to rise. The prices of methyl maltol and ethyl maltol rose from 0.06 and 0.057 million yuan/ton in early April to the current 0.102 and 0.082 million yuan/ton respectively. In 24Q3, mainstream suppliers of sucralose issued several price increase letters, increasing the price of sucralose from 0.1 million yuan/ton at the end of August to the current 0.21 million yuan/ton. In the process, stocks were successfully removed. On the demand side, China's export volume of sucralose was 5103 tons in 24Q3, +20.46% year over year, and +28.75% month on month. The outlook for overseas demand is positive. Higher prices are compounded by improved demand, and the 24Q4 company's performance is expected to increase markedly.
Dingyuan Phase II has entered the contribution period, and process updates are expected to continue to reduce costs. 24H1, the main projects of the company's “Dingyuan Phase II Project Phase I” were put into operation. This phase of the project includes major projects with an annual output of 0.6 million tons of sulfuric acid, 0.06 million tons of ionic membrane potassium and alkali, and 0.15 million tons of hydrogen peroxide. While improving the company's industrial chain layout, it will further increase the company's profit margin. On October 30, the company announced that it plans to invest 2.002 billion yuan to build a gasification project with an annual output of 0.2 million tons of synthetic ammonia powder coal. The estimated construction period is 24 months. After the project is fully put into operation, it can achieve 0.1018 million tons/year of liquid ammonia, 0.0664 millionkNm3/year of CO 0.016 millionkNm3/year, and 0.2 million tons/year of ammonium bicarbonate. The new process is expected to continue to replace the backward process Promote cost reduction and efficiency.
Investment advice: Due to the sharp rise in the price of the company's core products and raising the average price forecast for 2024, we expect the company's net profit to be 0.768, 1.048, and 1.266 billion yuan (previous values were 0.738, 0.969, and 1.302 billion yuan), respectively, and the current market value corresponding to PE is 17x, 13x, and 10x, respectively. Referring to historical valuations, the company was given a valuation of 17x in 2025, corresponding to a target price of 31.28 yuan, maintaining a “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: raw material prices rose above expectations, downstream demand fell short of expectations, and project progress fell short of expectations.
