维持增持。公司前三季度营收 30.4 亿元/-13.8%，归母净利 1.98 亿元/-25.6%，扣非1.91 亿元/-24.5%；Q3 单季度营收9.63 亿元/-17.2%，归母净利0.5 亿元/-35.4%，扣非0.5 亿元/-33.3%。考虑瑞表销售/自有品牌有所承压，下调预测2024-26 年EPS 至0.61/0.68/0.75 元(原0.95/1.05/1.16 元)增速-26/13/10%；参考同行业可比公司估值，给予公司2024 年20 倍PE，下调目标价至12.2 元，维持增持。Introduction to this report:
Q3 Ruibiao/private brand sales are under pressure. The company actively promotes channel structure optimization, cultivates new growth points, and waits for the steady recovery of business.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings. The company's revenue for the first three quarters was 3.04 billion yuan/ -13.8%, net profit due to mother 0.198 billion yuan/ -25.6%, less 0.191 billion yuan/ -24.5%; Q3 single quarter revenue 0.963 billion yuan/ -17.2%, net profit to mother 0.05 billion yuan/ -35.4%, less 0.05 billion yuan/ -33.3%. Considering that Ruiwatch's sales/own brands are under pressure, the forecast was lowered to 26/13/ 10% EPS to 0.61/0.68/0.75 yuan (originally 0.95/1.05/1.16 yuan) in 2024-26; referring to comparable company valuations in the same industry, the company was given 20 times PE in 2024, and the target price was lowered to 12.2 yuan to maintain the increase in holdings.
Q3 Net profit was under pressure, and gross margin improved. 1) Q1-3 revenue growth rates for a single quarter were -11.2/-13.2/ -17.2%, respectively, and -26.8/-14.9/ -35.4%, after deducting non-growth rates of -27/ -13.7/ -33.3%, respectively. The Q3 decline increased month-on-month or pressure on Inrui and private brand sales; 2) gross profit margin of 37.2% /+1.14pct for the first three quarters, net profit margin 6.5% /-1.03pct; 3) Expense rate for the period 28.2% /+2.39pct, including sales/management/financial expenses separately 22.2/4.2/0.47/ 1.41%, +2.57/-0.35/ -0.01/+0.18pct, respectively; 4) Operating cash flow 0.317 billion yuan/ -33.8%
Swiss watch's performance has been weak since the beginning of the year, and we look forward to subsequent improvements. 1) In January-September, total Swiss watch exports fell 2.7% year on year; 2) Swiss watch exports fell 12.4% to 2.1 billion Swiss francs (about 17.2 billion yuan) in January-September; 2) in January-September, total exports to mainland China and Hong Kong fell 24.6/ 20.4% year on year, respectively. Total exports from September to the two places fell 49.7/ 34.6% year on year respectively, causing the two places to drop to the fifth and sixth largest markets in the world, respectively; 3) With the implementation of a number of policies, Swiss watch consumption is also expected to improve.
Actively promote channel structure optimization and cultivate new growth points. 1) The “Feiyada” brand's newly upgraded store image, using stores such as aerospace-themed stores and Boguan package stores as a starting point to continuously optimize the channel structure; 2) continue to promote brand positioning upgrades and launch various themed watches; 3) increase investment in scientific and technological innovation in the fields of core technology, application of technological materials, precision timing equipment, etc.; 4) Promote the layout of digital transformation and online channels to cultivate new growth points such as smart wearables, and the business is expected to recover steadily.
Risk warning: Swiss watch, private brand sales fall short of expectations, poor channel development, etc.
