Q3 主动降速纾压，国窖批价相对坚挺。公司Q3 营收/利润分别同增0.7%/2.6%，外部需求及库存压力加大下降速已有预期。结合渠道反馈，中秋国庆外部需求趋弱，叠加竞品影响，产品动销端承压明显，公司策略上亦主动降速调整，适当降低回款发货节奏。具体来看，国窖系表现好于大盘，前三季度整体看高低度国窖回款出货端均保持双位数增长，特曲系列继Q1 快速增长后，Q2-Q3 增速放缓，特曲60 表现相对较好，窖龄持续调整。单三季度看，在外部需求进一步冲击下，国窖系列持平微增，且高度国窖批价保持稳定，其他系列均有所下滑。Matters:
The company announced its three-quarter report for 2024. In the first three quarters, it achieved revenue of 24.3 billion yuan, an increase of 10.8%, and net profit to mother of 11.59 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7%. Q3 achieved revenue of 7.4 billion yuan, an increase of 0.7%, net profit to mother of 3.57 billion yuan, an increase of 2.6%, repayment of 8.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.4%, net operating cash flow of 4.24 billion yuan, an increase of 24.5%, and contract liabilities of 2.65 billion yuan, an increase of 0.31 billion yuan over the end of Q2.
Commentary:
Q3 took the initiative to slow down and relieve pressure, and Guojiao's price was relatively strong. The company's Q3 revenue/profit increased by 0.7%/2.6% respectively, and it is expected that external demand and inventory pressure will increase and decline. Combined with channel feedback, external demand for the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day weakened, compounding the influence of competitive products. The pressure on the product sales side was obvious. The company also took the initiative to slow down and adjust its strategy to reduce the pace of repayment and delivery as appropriate. Specifically, the Guojiao series performed better than the market. Overall, in the first three quarters, both high and low Guojiao repayment shippers maintained double-digit growth. Following the rapid growth in Q1, the Q2-Q3 growth rate of the Special Series slowed, and the performance of the Special Edition 60 was relatively good, and the cellar age continued to adjust. Looking at the third quarter of a single year, under the further impact of external demand, the Guojiao series continued to increase slightly, and the price of the Guojiao series remained stable. All other series declined.
Cash flow was clearly under pressure, and net interest rates rose slightly from a high level due to shrinking expense ratios. Cash flow is clearly under pressure. Sales repayments increased 2.3% in the first three quarters, and the 19.4% decline in Q3 was slower than revenue. The judgment was mainly related to the company taking the initiative to reduce repayment tasks in the context of weakening external demand in Q3. Combined with channel feedback, the company is currently 70% + in repayment progress. In addition, the company's net operating cash flow increased by 24.5% in Q3, mainly due to a marked decrease in cash for purchasing goods and receiving labor payments during the quarter. Contract debt at the end of Q3 was 2.65 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.31 billion yuan over the end of Q2. In terms of profit, the Q3 gross profit margin was 88.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 pct, which was not significant. In terms of tax rates, the Q3 sales tax rate remained flat at 9.4%. The sales expense ratio was 11.8%, down 1.1 pcts, the management fee rate was 3.5%, and 0.6 pct, so the Q3 net interest rate was 48.2%, a slight increase of 0.9 pct.
From moving forward with burdens to unloading burdens, relieving pressure on reports is the beginning of getting out of trouble and embarking on a new journey. Against the backdrop of further pressure on liquor terminal demand and sales this year, the company's channel-side inventory has reached about 3 months or even slightly higher. The management pragmatically adjusted the strategy, actively slowed down the pressure, did not forcibly pursue repayment progress, helped the channel relieve pressure, improve the rebate mechanism for five-size products, and maintain price stability. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, considering the current external demand environment and inventory levels, we believe that pragmatically pursuing price and channel system stability is more important than pursuing high income. Targets or cuts for the whole year will cause a pragmatic decline to release pressure or be a more rational choice. Looking ahead to the Spring Festival and next year, it is expected that the company's goals may be reduced rationally and pragmatically. The Spring Festival and the first half of the year will focus on digesting inventory and maintaining the price market. If industry demand improves in the second half of the year, the company's management and channel-side market-based mechanisms will still have advantages, and it may be possible to start at an accelerated pace after inventory is cleared.
Investment advice: Rationally decelerate the current pressure, potentially reverse the elastic target in the coming year, and maintain the “strong push” rating.
The company's Q3 operations are under pressure, actively reducing channel repayment pressure, and Q4 and the Spring Festival may continue to slow down to absorb inventory.
However, the company still has advantages on the management and channel side. If demand improves in the coming year, it is expected to start at an accelerated pace after inventory is cleared. Currently, the company's stock price corresponds to 14 times PE in 25 years, and is at a low valuation level in recent years, which is quite attractive.
Based on external demand and the company's operating conditions, we lowered our 24-26 EPS forecast to 9.16/9.54/10.77 yuan (the original forecast value was 10.28/11.27/12.19 yuan) and maintained the target price of 206 yuan, corresponding to 22 times PE in 25 years, and maintained a “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: Consumption recovery falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, etc.
