According to Axios on Thursday, Iran is still preparing for a large-scale retaliation against the airstrikes on Israel last Saturday night and early morning.

Both sides seem to be caught in a cycle of retaliation, with Israel's missile and military facility strikes against Iran last Saturday being a response to Iran's attack on Israel on October 1st.

Although most regional observers believe that the situation of tit-for-tat has cooled down, reflected in this week's drop in oil prices, Axios' report quoted two Israeli officials as saying: 'Israeli intelligence indicates that Iran is preparing to launch attacks on Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the US presidential election.'

They said this would involve a large number of drones and ballistic missiles. Throughout the Gaza war, Iran-backed Iraqi paramilitary forces sporadically launched drones, but not on a large scale.

Israeli sources said on Thursday that Iran is actually moving ballistic missiles in preparation for such an attack.

In addition, Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) commander Hossein Salami was quoted as saying that Iran's response will be 'different from' any scenario Israel might expect.

CNN has also reported on this new threat and, based on Iranian military sources, wrote the following report on Wednesday.

A senior insider told CNN on Wednesday that Israel's recent attacks on Iran will receive a "clear and painful" response, which could likely occur before the US presidential election.

This remarks indicate that unlike Iran's initial attempt to downplay the seriousness of the strikes carried out by Israel on October 25, this marks the first time Israel openly admits to hitting Iranian targets.

A source familiar with Iran's deliberation stated, "The Islamic Republic of Iran's response to the aggression of the Zionist regime will be clear and painful."

Although the exact date of the attack was not provided by the sources, they mentioned that the attack "could occur before the US presidential election day."

Meanwhile, the Iraqi government expressed anger over Israeli warplanes violating its airspace during the attacks last weekend. The Iraqi government has formally protested the illegal incursion to the United Nations.

Reportedly, about 100 Israeli fighter jets used in the attacks appeared to have fired from the neighboring Iraqi airspace towards Iran. The Israeli Air Force has long employed this tactic of attacking Syria, as it often fires from the undefended Lebanese airspace.

Currently, negotiators from the USA and Israel stated that they are close to reaching a ceasefire with Hezbollah, but any new large-scale attack initiated by the "Iran Axis" would jeopardize this potential agreement.

Influenced by the above information, international oil prices rebounded for the second consecutive day. Although Axios reported that Iran's plan to use Iraqi militias may be to avoid Israel attacking its territory again, the mere mention of the second major oil-producing country in OPEC possibly getting involved in the conflict is enough to drive up crude oil prices.

Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Private Wealth Group, said, "It's like a balloon, inflating and deflating - we've now added a bit of air back to the geopolitical risk premium."

Editor/ping