锡膏印刷设备确收节奏预计正常，Q3 毛利率边际改善。单Q3 实现营收2.18 亿元，同比+43.93%，环比+6.39%；实现归母净利润0.17 亿元，同比+143.76%，环比-1.11%；实现扣非归母净利润0.15 亿元，同比+207.72%，环比+0.72%。2024 年上半年，锡膏印刷设备实现营业收入1.90 亿元，同比下降6.38%，上半年公司该产品出货量有所增长，但部分设备未验收，所以对当期营业收入产生一定影响,边际来看，Q3 实现毛利率32.54%，同比-3.13pcts，环比+1.38pcts，说明锡膏印刷设备验收节奏有所恢复。Keger Precision Machinery released its 2024 three-quarter report.
Revenue is growing steadily, and profit growth is slower than on the revenue side, mainly due to factors such as gross margin and non-recurring profit and loss. The first three quarters of 2024 achieved revenue of 0.577 billion yuan, +31.57% year over year; realized net profit of 0.044 billion yuan, +5.39% year over year; realized net profit of 0.039 billion yuan without return to mother, +28.12% year over year.
The profit side growth rate is lower than the revenue side. There are two main reasons. On the one hand, gross margin declined due to changes in product structure. The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 32.38%, -4.04pct year on year. On the other hand, the increase in bad debt preparation due to a decrease in corporate software tax rebates and government subsidies and an increase in long-term receivables balances also had a certain impact on profits.
The pace of receipt of solder paste printing equipment is expected to be normal, and gross margin improved marginally in Q3. Q3 achieved revenue of 0.218 billion yuan, +43.93% YoY, +6.39% month-on-month; realized net profit of 0.017 billion yuan, +143.76% YoY, and -1.11% month-on-month; realized net profit of 0.015 billion yuan without return to mother, +207.72% YoY and +0.72% month-on-month. In the first half of 2024, solder paste printing equipment achieved operating income of 0.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.38%. The company's shipments of this product increased in the first half of the year, but some of the equipment was not inspected, which had a certain impact on current revenue. On a marginal basis, Q3 achieved a gross profit margin of 32.54%, -3.13pcts year-on-year, and +1.38pcts month-on-month, indicating that the pace of solder paste printing equipment acceptance has recovered.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's operating income for 24-26 to be 0.892, 1.046, 1.153 billion yuan, and net profit to mother of 0.065, 0.095, and 0.113 billion yuan. For PE in '25, we give it a “neutral” rating.
Risk warning: Downstream sentiment recovery falls short of expected risks, risks of falling short of expectations in new business areas, increased risks due to competition, etc.
