盈利能力短期承压，关注产品结构调整下的改善。公司Q1-Q3 实现毛利率73.81%，同比-1.96pcts，主要系货折力度加大；其中单24Q3 毛利率66.24%，同比-8.63pcts。费率端，24Q3 期间费用率为35.62%，同比+15.75pcts，销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为27.75%/10.26%/0.22%/-2.62%，同比分别+12.27/+4.26/-0.40/-0.38pcts。综合影响下24Q3归母净利润率13.61%，同比-14.23pcts。我们认为公司强竞争环境下费用投放持续加大，推进高端年份老酒战略，手工班年份老酒加强品牌价值认知，在收入承压下费效比有所降低，短期盈利能力承压，预计随结构改善、需求回暖下逐步改善。Incident: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. 24Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 27.516 billion yuan, -9.14%; realized net profit to mother of 8.579 billion yuan, or -15.92% year-on-year; realized net profit of 8.397 billion yuan without return to mother, or -17.39% year-on-year. On a quarterly basis, 24Q3 achieved revenue of 4.641 billion yuan, or -44.82%; realized net profit attributable to mother of 0.631 billion yuan, or -73.03% year-on-year; realized net profit of 0.456 billion yuan without return to mother, or -81.41% year-on-year.
Actively slow down, seek long-term development, and go through the cycle of deep transformation. We believe that since 24Q2, the company has clearly and actively slowed down and adjusted the pace of development, enhanced its core competitiveness through a series of measures such as product upgrades, channel optimization, innovation and transformation, and focused on medium- to long-term development. Competition for sake wine intensified, and scenes such as residents' banquets declined year on year. Channel feedback sales declined year on year during the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day peak season, and short-term business performance is expected to be under pressure.
On the revenue side, the 24Q3 company's sales revenue of 6.42 billion yuan was better than revenue performance, which was -33.49%; as of the end of the 24Q3 contract debt of 4.966 billion yuan, -10.0% year over year, the channel was rational, and the advance receipt reservoir was under pressure.
Profitability is under pressure in the short term, and attention is being paid to improvements under product restructuring. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 73.81% in Q1-Q3, or -1.96pcts year on year, mainly due to increased trade-off strength; of these, the gross profit margin for single 24Q3 was 66.24%, or -8.63 pcts year on year. On the rate side, the cost rate for the 24Q3 period was 35.62%, +15.75pcts, and the sales/management/R&D/finance expenses ratio was 27.75%/10.26%/0.22%/-2.62%, respectively, +12.27/+4.26/-0.40/-0.38pcts, respectively. Under the combined influence, the net profit margin for 24Q3 was 13.61%, -14.23pcts year over year. We believe that in a strong competitive environment, the company's spending will continue to increase, promote the strategy of high-end vintage wines, strengthen brand value awareness, reduce the cost-efficiency ratio under revenue pressure, and short-term profitability is under pressure. It is expected that it will gradually improve as the structure improves and demand picks up.
During the in-depth reform period, cash dividend planning was strengthened, short-term statements slowed down to reduce channel pressure, and focus on long-term steady development. We believe that the company faces up to the deep adjustment rules of the industry, actively adjusts the pace of business operations in the context of weak overall market demand, releases pressure on the channel side, and also attaches importance to cash dividend return planning. The plan plans a 24-26 dividend rate of no less than 70% and no less than 7 billion yuan, demonstrating the strength of long-term development. Recently, three vintage wines from the Craft Class were launched, and the “Dream Blue Craft Class Global Tour” campaign was launched on a large scale to strengthen the storage and production capacity advantages of its old wine, focus on deepening the base market, strengthen channels such as banquets, etc., focus on opening bottles and unpacking and inventory indicators, and seek long-term steady growth after in-depth reforms.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We believe that the company has gone through a cycle of deep reforms and adjustments, focusing on marginal improvements after inventory removal. The company is expected to achieve revenue of 29.369/26.782 billion yuan in 24-25, -11.3%/-8.8% YoY, and is expected to achieve net profit of 8.708/8.024 billion yuan in 24-25, -13.1%/-7.9% YoY, giving it a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Consumption recovery falls short of expectations, new product promotion falls short of expectations, regional market competition intensifies, etc.
