The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China (SHSE:688012), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 7.4% short of analyst estimates at CN¥2.1b, and statutory earnings of CN¥0.64 per share missed forecasts by 4.2%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment China's 19 analysts is for revenues of CN¥11.5b in 2025. This reflects a substantial 49% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 64% to CN¥4.05. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥11.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥4.04 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of CN¥185, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment China analyst has a price target of CN¥210 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥148. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment China's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 37% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 30% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 23% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment China is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥185, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment China going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment China has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
