单季度来看：24Q3 公司实现营业收入20.3 亿元，同比+20%，环比-13%；归母净利润3.9 亿元，同比+90%，环比-23%；扣非净利润4.0 亿元，同比+109%，环比-8%；毛利率 47%，同比+18pct，环比+3pct；经营性净现金流5.7 亿元，同比+73%，环比-46%。Key points of investment
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report, and profit, gross margin, and cash flow increased year-on-year
Looking at the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 6.22 billion yuan, +23% year over year; net profit to mother of 1.11 billion yuan, +113% year on year; deducted non-net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, +84% year on year; gross profit margin of 42%, +11 pct year on year; and net operating cash flow of 2 billion yuan, +67% year over year.
Looking at a single quarter: 24Q3 achieved operating income of 2.03 billion yuan, +20% year over month, -13% month on month; net profit of 0.39 billion yuan, +90% year over month, -23% month on month; net profit of 0.4 billion yuan, +109% year on month, -8% month on month; gross profit margin of 47%, +18pct year on month, +3pct month on month; net operating cash flow of 0.57 billion yuan, +73% year over month and -46% month on month.
Gold business spin-off: Q3 production and sales declined month-on-month, average cost decreased significantly year-on-year, and remained stable month-on-month
Production: Q1-3 was 10.7 tons, +5% year over year; of these, Q3 production was 3.2 tons, -5% year over year and -19% month over month.
Sales volume: Q1-3 was 10.9 tons, +5% year over year; of these, Q3 sold 3.4 tons, +5% year over year, and -16% month over month.
Average cost per gram: Q1-3 was 281.55 yuan/gram, -2% year over year; of these, Q3 was 273 yuan/gram, -9% YoY, +0.3% month-on-month.
By mining cost: Excluding exchange rate effects in the first three quarters, [domestic mining] 171 yuan/gram, +17% year over year; [Vientiane Mining] 1,483 US dollars/ounce, -5% year over year; [Venus Vasa] 1,279 US dollars/ounce, -1.65% year over year.
Performance interpretation: The Q3 production season led to a decline in profits. Expectations for Q4 results
Q3 Production decline: (1) The company's domestic mine grade has declined slightly since this year, resulting in a small increase in production. (2) Referring to last year's situation, Q3 is generally the rainy season for the company's overseas mines (the main production force), which will have an impact on mining. Therefore, Q3 gold production is a low season during the year, which affects performance release to a certain extent.
Domestic mine costs have risen: This year's excavation, prospecting and mining workload has increased year-on-year and the grade has declined slightly.
I am optimistic that Q4's performance will increase month-on-month: (1) Q4 gold prices will rise. As of October 30, 2024, the price of Shanghai Gold rose to 636.75 yuan/gram, up 12% from the average price in Q3. (2) The company's Q4 production is expected to increase. After the off-season, the company's mine production returned to normal. Referring to the company's annual production target of 16 tons and the month-on-month increase in Q4 production last year, we believe that 24Q4's gold production is expected to rise to 4.5-5 tons, which in turn contributes to incremental profits.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We expect the company's net profit to be 1.794, 2.193, and 2.88 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, an increase of 123%, 22%, and 31%; EPS will be 1.08, 1.32, and 1.73 yuan, corresponding to PE 18 times, 14 times, and 11 times.
Risk warning
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates beyond expectations; the company's cost reduction and efficiency fell short of expectations; the company's gold production growth fell short of expectations
