2024 年前三季度公司销售、管理、财务费用率合计为1.28%，同比-0.18pct，维持较低水平；其中第三季度公司销售、管理、财务费用率合计为1.25%，同比-0.37pct，环比-0.05pct。公司前三季度毛利率为14.65%，同比-0.39pct；其中第三季度毛利率为13.58%，同比-0.82pct，环比-2.50pct。根据生意社、同花顺金融等数据，2024 年Q3 铝现货均价/氧化铝均价分别为1.96/0.39 万元，环比分别为-4.8%/+7.4%，成本及售价两端承压对盈利略有影响。Incident: On October 27, 2024, the company released a performance report for the first three quarters of 2024. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 39.19 billion yuan, +31.7% year over year; net profit to mother of 3.82 billion yuan, +52.5% year over year; deducted non-net profit of 3.68 billion yuan, or +48.8% year over year. Among them, the third quarter achieved revenue of 14.54 billion yuan, +20.2% year over month, +9.4% month on month; net profit to mother 1.3 billion yuan, +31.4% year on month, -4.0% month on month; after deducting non-net profit of 1.29 billion yuan, +31.6% year on year, -4.3% month on month.
Capacity utilization increased, and raw aluminum production increased significantly. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company produced 107.3/0.599/2.148/0.91 million tons of aluminum/ carbon products/ raw aluminum/ aluminum processing products, respectively, -2.5%/+3.1%/+26.3%/-0.1% year-on-year, respectively. Among them, the output of alumina/carbon products/raw aluminum/aluminum alloy and aluminum processed products in the third quarter was 35.0/0.201/0.797/0.322 million tons, respectively. The year-on-year changes were -1.7/+0.0/+0.071/-0.012 million tons, respectively, and the month-on-month changes were -0.7/+0.2/+8.4/+0.013 million tons, respectively. The electricity supply situation in Yunnan Province improved in the first three quarters of 2024. The company accelerated the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the capacity utilization rate increased markedly.
The cost rate declined steadily during the period, and pressure on both sides of the cost and sales price had a slight impact on profits.
The total sales, management, and financial expenses ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.28%, -0.18pct year-on-year, maintaining a low level; among them, the total sales, management, and financial expenses ratio for the third quarter was 1.25%, -0.37pct year-on-year, and -0.05pct month-on-month. The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 14.65%, -0.39pct; of these, the gross margin for the third quarter was 13.58%, -0.82pct yoy, and -2.50pct month-on-month. According to data from Business Association and Tonghuashun Finance, the average spot price of aluminum and the average price of alumina in Q3 of 2024 was 0.0196/0.0039 million yuan, respectively, -4.8%/+7.4% month-on-month, respectively. Pressure on both sides of the cost and sales price had a slight impact on profits.
The balance ratio is low, and there is more and more cash on the account. At the end of the company's 2024 three-quarter report, long-term and short-term loans were 2.27/0.03 billion yuan, respectively, -1.71/-0.04 billion yuan year-on-year, and -14.8/+0 billion yuan, respectively; monetary capital was 8.2 billion yuan, +4.23 billion yuan year-on-year, and +1.42 billion yuan month-on-month; the balance ratio was 25.0%, which remained low.
Investment advice: We maintain the company's profit forecast for 2024-2026. We expect the company's net profit to be 4.87/5.41/5.84 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively. We are optimistic about the company's long-term development trend and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of product price fluctuations, electricity price adjustments and electricity restrictions, downstream demand falls short of expectations.