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US Stock Market Outlook | The US core PCE annual rate in September remained unchanged from the previous month, with the three major futures indexes maintaining a downward trend; Increased competition in AI causing market concerns? microsoft, Meta shares f

Futu News · 20:46

热点要闻

周四盘前，三大期指齐挫

明星科技股盘前多数下跌，微软跌超3%，Meta跌近2%

热门中概股盘前多数下跌，理想汽车跌近9%，拼多多、蔚来跌超1%，小鹏、京东微涨。

Meta季度营收和盈利均超预期，AI亏损恶化并警告仍将大幅增加，盘前仍跌2%

Facebook母公司 $Meta Platforms (META.US)$三季度整体业绩和指引均超预期，但由于元宇宙和AI业务仍然亏损严重，活跃用户增长不及预期，Meta股价周三盘后下跌3%。 Meta旗下负责元宇宙和AI业务的Reality Labs在第三季度亏损高达 44.2 亿美元，营收为2.7亿美元。Meta警告称，预计该部门的“运营亏损仍将大幅（meaningfully）增加”。

尽管亏损加剧，Meta首席执行官扎克伯格表示，公司将继续在基础设施和其他项目（如元宇宙和 AI 眼镜）上投入大量资金，他认为这些努力是公司未来的核心，预计“2025 年资本支出将显著（significant）增长”。截至发稿，Meta盘前跌2%。

AI力挺微软Q3 Azure收入增超30%，但预计Q4增长放缓、AI支出加码

三季度 $微软 (MSFT.US)$ 云业务总收入同比超预期增长22%，AI贡献Azure增长12个百分点、高于二季度；三季度不计汇率影响Azure云收入增长34%，较二季度略为放缓仍高于预期，但预计四季度Azure营收进一步放缓至31%-32%；三季度资本支出加速增长，同比增近79%，预计四季度还将环比增加。

此外，微软在第三季度财报中表示，四季度将公布因持股OpenAI录得的投资亏损。微软在最新的美国证券交易委员会（SEC）文件中写道：“我们对OpenAI Global, LLC（“OpenAI”）进行了投资，总投资承诺为130亿美元，投资按权益法核算。”截至发稿，微软盘前下跌超3%。

DoorDash涨超5%，第三季度实现扭亏为盈，营收同比增长25%超预期

美国餐饮外卖公司 $DoorDash (DASH.US)$ 公布第三季度业绩，营收同比增长25%至27.1亿美元，市场预期26.6亿美元；期内扭亏为盈，录得净利润1.62亿美元，上年同期净亏损7300万美元；每股盈利0.38美元，市场预期0.2美元。

总订单量达6.43亿，同比增长18%。总订单价值200.02亿美元，同比增长19%。该公司预计，第四季度Marketplace应用总订单价值将介于206亿至210亿美元之间，市场预期206.4亿美元；调整后EBITDA将介于5.25亿至5.75亿美元之间。

优步盘前跌超6%，预测第四季度总预订量低于预期

$优步 (UBER.US)$ 今日美股盘前发布财报，2024年Q3营收为111.88亿美元，同比增长20%；净利润为26.12亿美元，去年同期为2.21亿美元。尽管2024年第三季度优步实现了创纪录的营业利润，但其报告称其乘车预订量低于预期，并对假日季的业绩预测也给出了中等水平。截止发稿，优步盘前下跌超6%。

雅诗兰黛盘前跌幅扩大至20%，公司撤回2025财年展望并下调派息

$雅诗兰黛 (EL.US)$ 美股盘前跌幅扩大至20%。公司第一财季经调整后净销售额33.6亿美元，预估33.7亿美元；第一财季经调整后每股收益14美分，预估9.2美分。雅诗兰黛预计第二财季经调整后每股收益20-35美分，市场预估1.05美元。此外，雅诗兰黛撤回2025财年展望并下调派息。

MicroStrategy宣布：未来三年内将筹集420亿美元以买入更多比特币

$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ 周三公布了第三季度业绩，并宣布了一项大胆的计划：在未来三年内筹集420亿美元资金，以购买入更多比特币。MicroStrategy宣布了所谓的“21/21计划”，将在未来三年内进行210亿美元的股权融资和210亿美元的债券发行。值得留意的是，MicroStategy是全球持有比特币最多的上市公司，远高于特斯拉、Block等同样投资比特币的企业。

理想汽车公布三季度财报后，美股盘前下跌超9%

$理想汽车 (LI.US)$ 公布2024年第三季度未经审计财务业绩，2024年第三季度的收入总额为人民币429亿元(61亿美元)，较2023年第三季度的人民币347亿元增加23.6%，较2024年第二季度的人民币317亿元增加35.3%。

2024年第三季度的理想车辆销售收入为人民币413亿元(59亿美元)，较2023年第三季度的人民币336亿元增加22.9%，较2024年第二季度的人民币303亿元增加36.3%。截至发稿，理想美股盘前跌超9%。

全球宏观

美联储最青睐的通胀数据“9月核心PCE年率”较上月持平，月率小幅反弹

北京时间周四20点30分，美国公布9月PCE物价指数。其中，美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.7%，较上月不变，美国9月核心PCE物价指数月率得0.3%，较上月（0.2%）有所反弹。美国短期利率期货在经济数据公布后收窄早前的跌幅，市场预计美联储将在11月和12月各降息25个基点。

此外，美国至10月26日当周初请失业金人数 21.6万人，预期23万人，前值由22.7万人修正为22.8万人。

美国10月计划裁员人数继续下降，大选前就业市场持稳

就业数据公司挑战者的数据显示，10月份美国宣布的裁员人数降至三个月低点，再次表明在下周总统大选之前，就业市场依然状况良好。今年截至10月企业宣布的裁员人数为664,839人，比2023年前10个月高出3.7%。这一数字是2020年以来的最高水平，当年前10个月共宣布裁员约216万人。虽然经济是选民最关心的问题，但他们最关心的是物价居高不下，而不是就业市场。

日本央行行长：不会受政治风波影响，如果经济和物价前景得以实现，将继续加息

10月31日周四上午，日本央行最新利率决议“按兵不动”。日本央行行长植田和男重申了2025财年通胀风险偏向上行的预测，称当前的政治局势不会对物价造成显著影响，外汇对物价的影响将比此前更大，3%的工资增速意味着加息前景可能更明朗，预计退出宽松政策的整体过程将是平稳的。

大选前美元对冲成本已飙升至近两年来最高

随着交易员开始为下周美国总统大选后市场大幅波动的风险做好准备，美元对冲成本目前已飙升至了近两年来的最高位。衡量彭博美元现货指数一周隐含波动率的指标，在本周三已升至了自2022年12月以来的最高点，当时的情况是对经济衰退的担忧曾短暂席卷金融市场。而现在的情形表明交易员正在为美元兑欧元、日元、人民币和墨西哥比索等主要非美货币的大幅波动做足准备，从而推高了防范此类汇率波动的期权成本。

桥水创始人达利欧：两位美国总统候选人都让人感到不安！

达利欧指出，共和党总统候选人特朗普“比民主党候选人哈里斯更资本主义”，因此对国内资本市场更有利。然而，他警告说，无论哪一方执政，经济都会出现巨额赤字。他补充说，两位候选人在税收政策方面存在重大分歧，并指出特朗普的计划通过征收更多关税来增加收入，这可能会导致价格上涨，但也取决于多少收入转化为内部生产力。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

19:30 美国10月挑战者企业裁员人数

20:30 美国9月个人支出月率

20:30 美国9月核心PCE物价指数月率

20:30 美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率

20:30 美国至10月26日当周初请失业金人数

21:45 美国10月芝加哥PMI

编辑/Rocky

Hot news

Pre-market on Thursday, the three major indexes all plunged.

Most growth tech stocks fell pre-market, with Microsoft dropping over 3% and Meta falling nearly 2%.

Most popular China concept stocks fell pre-market, with Li Auto falling nearly 9%, PDD Holdings and NIO Inc. dropping over 1%, while XPeng and JD.com saw slight increases.

Meta's quarterly revenue and earnings both exceeded expectations, but AI losses worsened with a warning of significant increase, leading to a 2% pre-market drop.

Meta Platforms, the parent company of Facebook. $Meta Platforms (META.US)$Overall performance and guidance for the third quarter exceeded expectations. However, due to continued significant losses in the metaverse and AI businesses, lower than expected active user growth, Meta's stock price fell 3% after hours on Wednesday. Reality Labs, responsible for metaverse and AI operations under Meta, incurred a high loss of $4.42 billion in the third quarter, with revenue at $0.27 billion. Meta warned that it anticipates the 'operating loss for this segment will continue to meaningfully increase'.

Despite the worsening losses, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg stated that the company will continue to invest heavily in infrastructure and other projects (such as the metaverse and AI glasses), believing these efforts are the core of the company's future, expecting "significant capital expenditures to grow in 2025". As of the time of publication, Meta's pre-market trading fell by 2%.

AI boosts Microsoft's Q3 Azure revenue growth by over 30%, but Q4 growth is expected to slow down with increased AI spending.

Third quarter $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ Cloud business total revenue exceeded expectations with a year-on-year growth of 22% in the third quarter, AI contributed 12 percentage points to Azure's growth, higher than the second quarter; excluding the impact of exchange rates, Azure cloud revenue increased by 34% in the third quarter, slightly slower than the second quarter but still above expectations, with an expected further slowdown in Azure revenue growth to 31%-32% in the fourth quarter; capital expenditures accelerated in the third quarter, increasing by nearly 79% year-on-year, expected to increase sequentially in the fourth quarter.

In addition, in Microsoft's third-quarter financial report, it stated that it will disclose investment losses recorded due to its stake in OpenAI in the fourth quarter. Microsoft wrote in its latest U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing: "We have invested in OpenAI Global, LLC ("OpenAI"), with total investment commitments of $13 billion, accounted for using the equity method." As of the time of publication, Microsoft's pre-market trading was down by over 3%.

Doordash surged by over 5%, achieving a profit in the third quarter with revenue growing by 25% year-on-year, exceeding expectations.

American dining delivery company $DoorDash (DASH.US)$ Announced third-quarter performance, revenue increased by 25% year-on-year to $2.71 billion, market expectation $2.66 billion; reversing losses to profits during the period, net profit recorded $0.162 billion, compared to a net loss of $73 million in the same period last year; earnings per share $0.38, market expectation $0.2.

Total order volume reached 0.643 billion, an 18% year-on-year increase. Total order value $20.002 billion, a 19% year-on-year increase. The company expects that the total order value of Marketplace applications in the fourth quarter will range between $20.6 billion and $21 billion, market expectation $20.64 billion; adjusted EBITDA will range between $0.525 billion and $0.575 billion.

Uber Technologies fell over 6% pre-market, forecasting that total bookings in the fourth quarter will be lower than expected.

$Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$ Today, before the US stock market opens, the financial report for Q3 2024 shows revenue of $11.188 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase; net income of $2.612 billion, compared to $0.221 billion in the same period last year. Despite Uber's record operating profit in Q3 2024, the company reported lower-than-expected ride bookings and issued a moderate performance forecast for the holiday season in its report. As of the deadline, Uber fell more than 6% pre-market.

Estee Lauder's pre-market decline expanded to 20%, with the company retracting its 2025 fiscal year outlook and lowering its dividend.

$Estee Lauder (EL.US)$ Pre-market trading widened its decline to 20%. The company's net sales in the first quarter adjusted to $3.36 billion, estimated $3.37 billion; adjusted earnings per share in the first quarter were 14 cents, estimated 9.2 cents. Estee Lauder expects adjusted earnings per share of 20-35 cents in the second quarter, market estimates is $1.05. In addition, Estee Lauder withdrew its outlook for the fiscal year 2025 and lowered its dividend.

Microstrategy announced that it will raise $42 billion in the next three years to buy more bitcoin.

$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ Microstrategy announced its third-quarter performance on Wednesday, along with a bold plan to raise $42 billion over the next three years to purchase more bitcoin. MicroStrategy announced the so-called '21/21 Plan', which includes $21 billion in equity financing and $21 billion in bond issuance over the next three years. It is worth noting that MicroStrategy is the publicly listed company with the largest holdings of bitcoin globally, far exceeding companies like Tesla and Block that also invest in bitcoin.

Following the release of Li Auto Inc's third-quarter financial report, pre-market trading in the US dropped over 9%.

$Li Auto (LI.US)$ Unaudited financial performance for the third quarter of 2024 was disclosed, with total revenue for the third quarter of 2024 amounting to RMB 42.9 billion ($6.1 billion), an increase of 23.6% from the third quarter of 2023's RMB 34.7 billion, and an increase of 35.3% from the second quarter of 2024's RMB 31.7 billion.

In the third quarter of 2024, Li Auto Inc's vehicle sales revenue was RMB 41.3 billion ($5.9 billion), an increase of 22.9% from the third quarter of 2023's RMB 33.6 billion, and an increase of 36.3% from the second quarter of 2024's RMB 30.3 billion. As of the time of publication, Li Auto's pre-market trading is down over 9%.

Global macro

The inflation data most favored by the Federal Reserve, the 'September core PCE annual rate', remained unchanged from the previous month and rebounded slightly month-on-month.

At 8:30 p.m. on Thursday Beijing time, the U.S. released the September PCE price index. In September, the U.S. core PCE price index recorded an annual rate of 2.7%, unchanged from the previous month, and a monthly rate of 0.3%, a slight rebound from the previous month (0.2%). U.S. short-term interest rates futures narrowed their earlier declines after the economic data was released, with the market expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November and December respectively.

In addition, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending October 26 was 0.216 million, below the expected 0.23 million, with the previous value revised from 0.227 million to 0.228 million.

The planned layoffs in the United States for October continue to decline, stabilizing the job market before the election.

Challenger job data shows that the number of job cuts announced in the United States in October hit a three-month low, once again indicating a strong job market heading into the presidential election next week. The number of announced job cuts by enterprises by October this year totals 664,839, up 3.7% from the same period in 2023. This number is the highest level since 2020, with a total of about 2.16 million job cuts announced in the first 10 months of that year. Although the economy is the voters' top concern, they are more worried about high and persistent prices than the job market.

Bank of Japan Governor: Will not be affected by political turmoil, will continue to raise interest rates if the economic and price outlook can be achieved.

On the morning of Thursday, October 31st, the Bank of Japan's latest interest rate decision was to 'stand pat.' Bank of Japan Governor Kikuo Iwata reiterated the upward inflation risks for the fiscal year 2025, saying that the current political situation will not have a significant impact on prices, with forex having a greater impact on prices than before. A 3% wage growth rate implies a clearer prospect for rate hikes, and the overall process of exiting loose policies is expected to be smooth.

The cost of hedging the US dollar has soared to its highest level in nearly two years before the election.

As traders prepare for significant post-election market volatility next week after the US presidential election, the cost of hedging the US dollar has now soared to the highest level in nearly two years. Measured by the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index one-week indicator, it rose to the highest point since December 2022 this Wednesday, when concerns about economic recession briefly swept through the financial markets. The current situation indicates that traders are preparing for significant fluctuations in the US dollar against major non-US currencies such as the euro, yen, renminbi, and Mexican peso, thereby increasing the cost of options to hedge against such exchange rate volatility.Implied volatilityBridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio: Both US presidential candidates are unsettling! Dalio points out that Republican presidential candidate Trump is "more capitalist" than Democratic candidate Harris, making him more favorable to the domestic capital markets. However, he warns that regardless of which party takes office, there will be enormous budget deficits. He adds that the two candidates have major differences in tax policies, and highlights Trump's plan to increase income by imposing more tariffs, which could lead to price hikes, but also depends on how much income is transformed into internal productivity.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates: Both US presidential candidates are unsettling!

Dalio pointed out that Republican presidential candidate Trump is “more capitalist” than Democratic candidate Harris, making him more favorable to the domestic capital markets. However, he warned that regardless of which party is in power, there will be huge budget deficits. He also mentioned that the two candidates have significant differences in tax policies, and highlighted Trump's plan to increase revenue by imposing more tariffs, which could result in price increases, but also depends on how much revenue translates into internal productivity.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

19:30 USA October Challenger Job Cuts

20:30 USA September Personal Spending MoM

20:30 USA September Core PCE Price Index MoM

20:30 USA September Core PCE Price Index YoY

20:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims up to October 26th

21:45 USA October Chicago PMI

Editor/Rocky

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