Q3 业绩略低于市场预期，盈利能力环比下滑。公司营收及利润持续增长，2024 前三季度营收及利润均达历史最高水平，毛利率为57.94%（YoY+0.27pct），净利率为33.18%（YoY-0.37pct）。单季度来看，2024Q3，公司实现营收1.98 亿元（YoY-2.57%），归母净利润0.49 亿元（YoY-24.54%），扣非净利润0.40 亿元（YoY-31.86%），毛利率为53.29%，同比-3.63pct，环比-8.90pct，净利率为24.86%，同比-7.24pct，环比-10.31pct。我们认为Q3 毛利率及净利率环比下降的主要原因是，公司产品结构存在季度间的波动，Q3 毛利率相对较低的产品发货较多，占比提升，此外Q3 汇兑损失增加、利息收入减少导致财务费用环比增加1,669万元，财务费用率环比+8.57pct。occurrences
On October 29, 2024, the company released its 2024 three-quarter report. 2024Q1-3 achieved operating income of 0.69 billion yuan (YoY +2.75%), net profit of 0.229 billion yuan (YoY +1.62%), deducting non-net profit of 0.213 billion yuan (YoY +0.10%).
viewpoints
Q3 performance was slightly lower than market expectations, and profitability declined month-on-month. The company's revenue and profit continued to grow. In the first three quarters of 2024, both revenue and profit reached the highest level in history. The gross margin was 57.94% (YOY+0.27pct), and the net margin was 33.18% (YOY-0.37pct). Looking at a single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 0.198 billion yuan (YoY -2.57%), net profit of 0.049 billion yuan (YoY -24.54%), net profit of 0.04 billion yuan (YoY -31.86%), gross margin of 53.29%, -3.63pct year-on-year, -8.90pct month-on-month, net interest rate of 24.86%, year-on-year -7.24pct, month-on-month. 2024Q3 We believe that the main reason for the month-on-month decline in gross margin and net margin in Q3 is that the company's product structure fluctuated between quarters. In Q3, products with relatively low gross margins were shipped more, accounting for an increase of 16.69 million yuan month-on-month, and financial expenses increased by 16.69 million yuan month-on-month, and the financial expense ratio was +8.57pct month-on-month.
Production capacity construction continues, and new production capacity will be released in an orderly manner. In terms of APIs and intermediates, all 7 workshops of the company's non-public fund-raising projects have completed plant construction. Of these, 3 workshops have completed completion and acceptance, 1 workshop is undergoing trial production, 1 workshop is awaiting trial production, and 2 workshops are awaiting equipment installation. In terms of formulations, the highly active formulation workshop and oral solid preparation workshop have completed plant construction and equipment installation, and are expected to be put into operation in 2025.
The formulation will usher in a harvest period, creating a third growth curve. Imatinib mesylate tablets, the company's first formulation product in collaboration with STADA, is expected to be approved in Europe in 2024, H1 approved in China in 2025, and will start contributing sales revenue in 2025. In addition, the company is actively developing an innovative drug business. On the one hand, it invests in new pharmaceutical companies, and on the other hand, introduces and develops new drugs. The new class 1.1 drug brozopent sodium being developed by the company to treat ischemic stroke has yet to enter phase III clinical trials.
Investment advice
We predict that the company's revenue for 2024/25/26 will be 0.881/1.028/1.286 billion yuan, and net profit will be 0.279/0.343/0.43 billion yuan, corresponding to the current PE of 26/21/17X. Considering the steady growth of the company's API and CDMO business, and the formulation business is expected to start contributing incremental revenue in 2025, we will continue to give it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Industry policy risk; risk of increased market competition; risk of falling product prices; risk of product development failure;