投资建议：随着海外去库存影响出清，国内行业整顿影响趋缓，公司业绩有望逐季改善。依据三季报最新经营情况，下调盈利预测，预计2024-2026 年营收44.0/51.8/60.7 亿元（原为45.0/52.7/61.7 亿元），同比增速7%/18%/17%，归母净利润4.0/5.1/6.4 亿元（原为4.0/5.2/6.5亿元），同比增速101%/28%/24%，当前股价对应PE=15/12/10x，维持“优于大市”评级。24Q3 revenue and net profit attributable to mother achieved year-on-month growth, and asset disposal income increased significantly in apparent profit. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.125 billion yuan (-2.61%), net profit due to mother 0.307 billion yuan (+2.31%), and net profit not attributable to mother of 0.225 billion yuan (-20.59%). Apparent revenue and deducted non-profit declined in the first three quarters, mainly due to a decrease in sales of quarantine protective equipment and an increase in exchange losses. 24Q3 single-quarter revenue of 1.083 billion yuan (+19.92%), net profit to mother 0.146 billion yuan (+131.73%), net profit of non-return to mother 0.064 billion yuan (+5.19%). The net profit growth rate was high. On the one hand, the performance base was low in 23Q3 due to industry restructuring, while profits from the government's acquisition of some state-owned land use rights and housing assets of companies increased by about 0.093 billion yuan; in addition, the growth rate after deducting non-return to mother was negatively affected by exchange, and the exchange loss of 22 million in Q3 was.
The impact of inventory removal from overseas business has gradually been cleared, and the domestic hospital line business has grown significantly. 24Q3's regular business revenue (excluding quarantine protective equipment) was 1.054 billion yuan, an increase of 21.05% over the previous year. The impact of inventory removal from overseas business was cleared, achieving revenue of 0.645 billion yuan (+24.36%); domestic business achieved revenue of 0.432 billion yuan (+13.52%). Among them, the domestic hospital line business grew significantly, achieving revenue of 0.278 billion yuan (+20.99%) and retail line business revenue of 0.137 billion yuan (+0.06%).
Gross profit margins have been rising steadily, and financial expense ratios have increased. 24Q3's gross profit margin was 33.77% (+0.45pp). The increase in gross margin was mainly due to an improvement in the revenue structure, which increased the share of modern wound dressing and surgical sensing control businesses with high gross margins; sales expenses ratio 7.53% (-0.42pp), management expenses ratio 12.20% (-0.75pp), R&D expenses ratio 3.36% (+0.24pp), financial expenses ratio 2.23% (+2.69pp), four rates of 25.33% (+1.77pp). Financial expenses increased significantly, mainly due to an increase in exchange losses.
Investment advice: As the impact of overseas inventory removal clears up, the impact of domestic industry rectification slows down, and the company's performance is expected to improve quarter by quarter. According to the latest operating conditions in the three-quarter report, the profit forecast was lowered. Revenue is expected to be 4.4/5.18/6.07 billion yuan (originally 4.5/5.27/6.17 billion yuan) for 2024-2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7%/18%/17%, and net profit to mother of 0.4/0.51/0.64 billion yuan (originally 0.4/0.52/0.65 billion yuan), with a year-on-year growth rate of 101%/28%/24%. The current stock price corresponds to PE = 15/12/10x, maintained “Better than the market” rating.
Risk warning: Consolidation of acquisition targets falls short of expectations; risk of price increases of raw materials; risk of exchange rate fluctuations.
