Stock Index News: US stock technology rose slightly, and Hong Kong stocks, China Securities Technology and A-share computers pulled back. S&P 500 Index -0.96%, Nasdaq Composite Index +0.16%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +0.08%; Tamama Technology Index +1.62%; Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index -0.52%; Hang Seng Technology Index -1.37%; Computer -0.78%.
Individual stock performance: Tesla rose more than 21.97% during the week, and most popular technology stocks fell. According to statistics, compared with the closing price on October 18, after the October 25 market, Apple's total -1.53%, Nvidia +2.57%, Tesla +21.97%, Google +1.13%, Amazon -0.61%, META -0.56%, Microsoft +2.39% ARM -6.06%, Intel -0.40%, Qualcomm -0.38%, AMD +0.17% 10-year treasury bonds and exchange rates: On October 25, the US 10-year treasury bond interest rate was 4.25%, up 17 bps over the 18th; October 25 The median price of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.11; the cumulative increase from the October 18 price was 184 basis points. Core ideas:
1) Tesla disclosed the FY2024Q3 performance report. The company achieved total revenue of 25.182 billion US dollars (YoY +7.85%) in a single quarter and achieved net profit of 2.183 billion US dollars (YoY +16.84%). Due to the decline in raw materials, transportation and material costs, and the company's continuous implementation of cost reduction and efficiency, gross margin increased significantly to 19.8%; free cash flow reversed the negative value of the first half of the year, with a significant year-on-year improvement. In terms of revenue segmentation, the energy storage business continued to grow at a high rate (YoY +52.4%) due to capacity release. Vehicle production and delivery increased year-on-year, and FSD accrued revenue of 0.326 billion US dollars in the third quarter. We believe that Tesla's future performance growth points mainly include: 1) the energy storage sector's production capacity and installed capacity are expected to continue to increase dramatically; 2) the low-cost models to be launched in the first half of 2025, and the company expects car deliveries to increase 20-30% year-on-year next year; 3) V13 will soon be released in the continuous iteration of FSD. Robotaxi is still in the early stages, and the promotion of the new growth curve needs to be implemented; 4) In terms of profit, carbon credit profit is stable. It received a total carbon credit profit of 0.739 billion US dollars this quarter. The issue of limited growth is not taken into account in future marginal changes.
2) Google parent company A1phabet disclosed the FY2024Q3 performance report, with third-quarter revenue of $88.268 billion (YoY +15.09%) and net profit of $26.301 billion (YoY +33.58%). The company's extensive investment in AI and infrastructure research is paying off, particularly in search and cloud services, where search business revenue reached 49.385 billion dollars (YoY +12.17%); YouTube's revenue reached 8.921 billion dollars (YoY +12.19%), and Google Cloud business revenue reached 11.353 billion dollars (YoY +34.98%), with strong growth. A1phabet continues to “redesign the cost base” to remain competitive. Through multiple rounds of layoffs over the past year, the number of employees has been reduced by 1,112 to 181,269. The company expects capital expenditure for the fourth quarter to be similar to the third quarter, around $13 billion. Capital expenditure is still expected to increase in 2025, but the increase may be less than 2024. Specific details will be provided during the fourth quarter conference call.
Risk warning: Technology delivery falls short of expectations; competition from tech giants increases risk; legal and regulatory risk; supply chain risk; downstream demand falls short of expectations