Air China (601111): Profit declined slightly due to volume increases and prices fell, and performance exceeded expectations

投资要点：

事件：中国国航公告三季度业绩，Q3 实现收入486.3 亿元，同比增长6.0%；Q3 归母净利润41.44 亿元，同比下降2.3%，业绩超预期；Q3 扣非归母净利润38.73 亿元，同比下降4.7%；前三季度实现营业收入1281.5 亿元，同比增长21.5%；前三季度完成归母净利润13.62 亿元，同比增长72.1%；前三季度扣非归母净利润4.33 亿元，同比增长149.6%。

运营数据：2024Q3 为航空市场旺季，出行需求旺盛，中国国际航空经营数据持续提升。

根据公司公告，公司Q3 整体ASK 同比19 年+30.17%，整体RPK 同比19 年+28.35%，客座率同比19 年-1.17 pct。国内：公司运量增长高于运力，国内客座率进一步恢复。

2024Q3 国内ASK 恢复至2019 年同期的157%，同比23 年-0.24%；国内RPK 恢复至19 年同期的154.4%，同比23 年+8.12%；国内客座率与19 年相比-1.3 pct，同比23 年+6.4 pct；国内客运量恢复至19 年同期的150.84%，同比23 年+8.63%。国际：2024Q3海外航线供需恢复大幅提升。公司国际ASK 恢复至19 年同期的92.02%，同比23 年+166%；国际RPK 恢复至19 年同期的89.29%，同比23 年+177.08%；国际客座率达到77.9%，与19 年相比-2.4pct，同比23 年+4.8pct；国际客运量恢复至19 年同期的104.24%，同比23 年+90.25%。

机队规模：根据公司公告，截止2024 年三季度，中国国航总机队规模达到924 架，同比19 年同期增加36%（受合并山东航空影响），同比23 年同期增加2.8%。

财务数据：收入—— 根据公司公告，中国国航24Q3 营业收入486.3 亿元，同比23 年+6.03%，前三季度共实现收入1281.5 亿元，同比23 年+21%；以营业收入/RPK 估算公司Q3 客公里收益为0.62 元，同比19 年+0.33%，同比23 年-12.18%，票价下降幅度较大。成本——根据公司公告，中国国航24Q3 营业成本422.77 亿元，单位成本为0.44 元，同比19 年+14.15%%，同比23 年-1.47%。前三季度单位成本为0.45 元，同比19 年+15%，同比23 年-2%。利润——根据公司公告，中国国航24Q3 实现归母净利润41.44 亿元，同比下降2.3%，前三季度归属于上市公司股东的净利润13.62 亿元，同比增长72.1%。

汇兑损益——2024 年三季度人民币兑美元升值1.7%，公司获得一定汇兑收益，Q3 财务费用同比23 年同期-33.15%。

投资分析意见：受到国际恢复节奏仍慢于预期、今年航空票价表现较为低迷等因素影响，我们调整24 年国内票价同比增速为-13%（原假设为-5%），下调24 年国际恢复率为100%（原假设为110%，因合并山航较19 年复苏较快），航空公司业绩随票价及油汇变化波动较大且考虑四季度淡季以来市场票价水平仍较为低迷，故下调24-26E 盈利预测至-6.05/61.31/93.04 亿元（原预测为77.35/134.89/165.52 亿元），对应公司24-26E PE-201/20/13x。国航短期盈利能力受国际航线复苏慢、宽体机利用率不足影响，但随着国际航线进一步复苏，国内运力释放后25-26 年国内市场供需结构将逐步改善，航司收益水平及飞机利用率均有望提升，以26 年完全常态化运行为假设，目前市值对应26 年盈利预测PE 为13X，仍低于三大航历史估值中枢，维持“增持”评级。

风险提示：油汇大幅波动，宏观经济增速不及预期，国际复苏不及预期，空难等突发事件

Key points of investment:

Incident: Air China announced third-quarter results. Q3 achieved revenue of 48.63 billion yuan, up 6.0% year on year; Q3 net profit of 4.144 billion yuan, down 2.3% year on year, exceeding expectations; Q3 net profit after deducting non-return to mother, decreased 4.7% year on year; achieved operating income of 128.15 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 21.5% year on year; completed net profit of 1.362 billion yuan year on year in the first three quarters; Net profit after deducting non-return to mother for the first three quarters was 0.433 billion yuan, an increase of 149.6% over the previous year.

Operating data: 2024Q3 is the peak season for the aviation market. Travel demand is strong, and China's international aviation business data continues to improve.

According to the company's announcement, the company's Q3 overall ASK was +30.17% year over year 19, overall RPK was +28.35% year over year 19, and the occupancy rate was -1.17 pct year on year 19. Domestic: The increase in the company's traffic volume was higher than capacity, and the domestic passenger occupancy rate recovered further.

2024Q3 domestic ASK recovered to 157% in the same period in 2019, -0.24% year on year; domestic RPK recovered to 154.4% in the same period in '19, +8.12% year on year 23; domestic passenger occupancy rate was -1.3 pct compared to '19, +6.4 pct year on year 23; domestic passenger traffic recovered to 150.84% in the same period in '19, +8.63% year on year 23. International: Overseas route supply and demand resumed sharply in 2024Q3. The company's international ASK recovered to 92.02% in the same period in '19, +166% year on year; international RPK recovered to 89.29% in the same period in '19, +177.08% year on year; international passenger occupancy rate reached 77.9%, -2.4 pct compared with '19, +4.8pct year on year 23; international passenger traffic recovered to 104.24% in the same period in '19, +90.25% year on year 23.

Fleet size: According to the company's announcement, as of the third quarter of 2024, the total fleet size of Air China reached 924 aircraft, an increase of 36% over the same period in '19 (affected by the merger of Shandong Airlines), and an increase of 2.8% over the same period in '23.

Financial data: Revenue - According to the company announcement, Air China's 24Q3 revenue was 48.63 billion yuan, +6.03% year on year 23, and achieved a total revenue of 128.15 billion yuan in the first three quarters, +21% year on year; based on operating revenue/RPK, the company's Q3 passenger kilometer revenue was 0.62 yuan, +0.33% year on year 19, and -12.18% year on year 23, with a significant drop in ticket prices. Cost - According to the company announcement, Air China's 24Q3 operating cost was 42.277 billion yuan, or 0.44 yuan per unit cost, +14.15% in 2019 and -1.47% year on year 23. The unit cost for the first three quarters was 0.45 yuan, +15% year on year 19 and -2% year on year 23. Profit - According to the company announcement, Air China achieved net profit of 4.144 billion yuan to mother in 24Q3, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first three quarters was 1.362 billion yuan, an increase of 72.1% year-on-year.

Exchange profit and loss - RMB appreciated 1.7% against the US dollar in the third quarter of 2024, and the company received certain exchange gains. Q3 financial expenses were -33.15% compared to the same period in '23.

Investment analysis opinion: Affected by factors such as the pace of international recovery still being slower than expected and air ticket price performance being sluggish this year, we adjusted the 24-year domestic fare growth rate to -13% (the original assumption was -5%) and lowered the 24-year international recovery rate to 100% (the original assumption was 110%, due to the consolidation of Shanhang recovering faster than in '19). Airline performance fluctuated greatly with ticket prices and oil sinks, and considering that the market fare level was still sluggish since the off-season in the fourth quarter, we lowered the 24-26E profit forecast to -0.605/6.139.304 billion yuan (original forecast was 7.735/13.489/16.552 billion yuan), corresponding to the company's 24-26E PE-201/20/13x. The short-term profitability of Air China is affected by the slow recovery of international routes and insufficient utilization of wide-body aircraft. However, with the further recovery of international routes, the domestic market supply and demand structure will gradually improve in 25-26 years after the release of domestic capacity, and airline revenue levels and aircraft utilization rates are expected to increase. Assuming complete normalization of operation in '26, the current market value is 13X, which is still below the historical valuation center of the three major airlines.

Risk warning: Oil exchange fluctuates greatly, macroeconomic growth falls short of expectations, international recovery falls short of expectations, air crashes and other emergencies

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中国国航(601111)：量升价跌市场下盈利小幅下滑 业绩超预期

Air China (601111): Profit declined slightly due to volume increases and prices fell, and performance exceeded expectations

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中国国航(601111)：量升价跌市场下盈利小幅下滑业绩超预期