Finance Economics APP learned that on October 31, Cui Dongshu announced that the global auto sales in September 2024 reached 7.72 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, an 8% increase from the previous month of August. In September 2024, compared to the peak in September 2017, it was slightly lower by 10%, at the median level of recent years. The sales volume from January to September 2024 was 66.13 million units, a 2% year-on-year increase. In September 2024, Chinese automotive companies held a 36% share of the world market.

From a global perspective, the Chinese auto market recovered strongly in 2024, with companies like BYD (002594.SZ), Chery Auto, Geely Auto (00175), Chongqing Changan Automobile (000625.SZ) showing the most prominent rebound among Chinese carmakers. Asian conglomerates represented by Toyota and Kia performed relatively poorly. The international chip shortage in the past two years had a minimal impact on the Chinese car market, instead driving strong performance in Chinese auto exports, seizing significant opportunities in the global market supply-demand gap.

As a highly monopolized industry like automotive chips, the current supply-side tightening will bring significant opportunities for the rise of the Chinese supply chain. The recent rapid development of new energy in the country, coupled with the strong trend of domestic auto companies, has led to the gradual decline of some international carmakers as electrification progresses.

1. Trends in global automotive sales for the month

The global auto sales in September 2024 reached 7.72 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, an 8% increase from the previous month of August. In September 2024, compared to the peak in September 2017, it was slightly lower by 10%, at the median level of recent years. The sales volume from January to September 2024 was 66.13 million units, a 2% year-on-year increase.

After declining continuously from 2018 to 2020, the global main auto-producing countries' sales in 2021 were 81.35 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4%, demonstrating good post-pandemic recovery. However, the sales in 2022 were only 80.18 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, barely above the 2020 sales level.

In 2023, global auto sales reached 89.01 million units, a year-on-year growth of 13%, still 5% below the high point in recent years, narrowing the production and sales gap. Currently, in 2024, it is 66.13 million units, similar to 2019, and is expected to exceed 90 million according to the pace set in 2023.

From January to September 2024, the global automotive market remained stable. The increase in sales before the Chinese New Year in January contributed to the global growth. From March to May, the global automotive market showed stable trends, while from June to September, the global automotive market was not strong.

2. Historical trends in global auto sales

The world auto sales in the above table primarily includes the sales of 70 countries, with sales of around 90 million units, which can generally be tracked monthly. Due to frequent wars, the global data has been slow in recent months.

There are also 100 other countries whose sales data can only be tracked annually, with a total of approximately 3 million units in 2022. Compared to the 80 million units from the 70 major countries, these smaller countries account for only about 3% of the total and have little impact.

Looking at the sales figures represented by major countries in the world, global auto sales decreased by 1% in 2018, experiencing negative annual growth for the first time since 2010. In 2019, auto sales were 89.81 million units, a 4% decrease compared to the previous year, slightly better than the decline in 2008. Sales dropped by 13% in 2020, rose by 4% year-on-year in 2021, performed poorly with a 1% decline in global sales in 2022, showed good performance with an 11% growth in global sales in 2023, and had a good performance with a 2% growth in global sales during January to September 2024. The Chinese car market was temporarily strong at the beginning of the year due to the Chinese New Year in January, followed by minimal growth from February to August, with an overall growth rate of 2%, and a recovery in September. Therefore, the overall performance of the Chinese car market from January to September remains stable with a slight increase.

3. Chinese sales remain in the lead in 2024 The Chinese auto market has an extremely significant impact on the world auto market. From 2016 to 2018, China's auto market accounted for about 30% of the world market, and in 2019, it fell to 29%, still having an absolute advantage. The market share rose to 32% in 2020-2021. In 2022, China's share rose to 33%. In 2023, China's share remained at 34%, and the low at the beginning of the year was a normal reflection of the Spring Festival factor and the withdrawal of the car purchase tax incentive policy. The main reason for the increase in China's share in May 2024 to 32% was the low level in February due to the Spring Festival factor. The North American and European markets have fully rebounded this year, and the trend in the southern hemisphere market is strong.

The Chinese auto market has an enormous influence on the global auto market. From 2016 to 2018, China accounted for around 30% of the world's cars, which dropped to 29% in 2019 but still had an absolute advantage. From 2020 to 2021, the market share rose to 32%. In 2022, China's market share increased to 33%.

In 2023, china's share remained at 34%, with the low beginning of the year being a normal reflection of the Spring Festival factor and the withdrawal of the car purchase tax preferential policies. Subsequently, china's market share reached 33% in January-September 2024, mainly due to the low February Spring Festival factor. The northern European market share has fully rebounded this year, while the southern hemisphere market has shown relatively strong trends.

4. Developing countries' markets are significantly strengthening.

Looking at sales volumes from various countries globally, currently the developed markets of Europe and the USA are performing relatively well, with China's automotive market overall showing good trends. Domestic sales in Russia are close to China's export volume, with Chinese automakers holding a high market share in Russia. The Russian market is gradually recovering, leading to high sales volume and profits for Chinese independent automakers.

5. Trends in markets around the world

Since 2020, china's global share has continued to rise, reaching 33.8% by 2023. From a low to high in the automotive market in china in 2024, currently at around 32.6%.

6. Trends in China's global market share.

In 2023, the global market further differentiated, with china's share gradually rebounding. At the beginning of 2023, as the preferential policies were phased out, china's car sales plummeted, with January's share dropping to 29%; a good level of 32% was reached in February-April; 33% was achieved in May-September; and by 8-12 months, china's cars accounted for 38% of the global proportion. Therefore, the high growth characteristics brought about by the low base at the beginning of 2024 are evident, with the growth pressure from May to September gradually manifesting.

In 2024, china's automotive market gradually returned to normal, coupled with strong exports, leading to the continuous strengthening of china's sales share. In March-April 2024, the chinese market warmed up, with china accounting for 33% of the global share in May-June, on par with previous years. By september, china's automotive market sales share reached 36%, stronger than the global market trend.

7. Monthly trends in car sales in various countries.

From the monthly sales growth trends of various countries around the world, the trend between months is basically balanced. However, due to seasonal and annual factors, there are still significant differences in trends among countries.

Due to the fact that the Chinese auto market is still in the popularization period, showing a relatively strong trend at the beginning and end of the year, with a relatively soft trend in the summer, while the American auto market shows a relatively weak trend at the beginning of the year and a relatively stable characteristic in the middle of the year. However, the spring rally feature of the Chinese auto market this year is not very obvious, so the market share did not increase significantly. Due to the Fed's rate hike, the European and American auto markets have declined, and the overall trend of the auto market has been stable. The trend of the Japanese auto market in September this year is not strong, while the Chinese auto market at the beginning of 2024 is still good.

This chart shows the world market share performance of international automotive groups. From the current overall performance of the groups, the market share of top international automotive companies has significantly decreased, while Chinese automotive companies have generally shown strong performance. As the international market positions of China, Russia, and India improve, coupled with the strong market performance of Asian automotive companies such as Geely, BYD, Chery, Changan, and Suzuki, the production and sales trends of Asian automotive companies are positive. European automotive companies generally have poor performance.

This chart shows the world sales share trends of various major automotive groups. From the current overall performance of the groups, the market share of top international automotive companies has significantly decreased, while Chinese automotive companies have generally shown strong performance. As the international market positions of China, Russia, and India improve, coupled with the strong market performance of Asian automotive companies such as Geely, BYD, Chery, Changan, and Suzuki, the production and sales trends of Asian automotive companies are positive. European automotive companies generally have poor performance.

The world market share of Chinese domestic brands has been significantly increasing. BYD, Chery, Changan, Geely, and other domestic brands have shown relatively strong performance.

The world share of international automotive groups is comprehensive. The market share of top international automotive companies has significantly decreased, while Chinese automotive companies have generally shown strong performance. As the international market positions of China, Russia, and India improve, coupled with the strong market performance of Asian automotive companies such as Geely, BYD, Chery, Changan, and Suzuki, the production and sales trends of Asian automotive companies are positive. European automotive companies generally have poor performance.

In addition to factors such as Hyundai, Kia, Suzuki, and Tata performing well in the Indian market, other international brands have seen a comprehensive decline in market share. Toyota Group has shown relatively strong performance, declining by 0.3 percentage points compared to 2019, reaching a market share of around 11% in 2024 globally, with strong overall performance in the North American market.

Volkswagen's performance is relatively weak, with a market share decreasing by 2.1% compared to 2019, facing significant pressure in the Chinese market. Overall, Volkswagen Group's performance in other global markets has improved significantly, with a noticeable recovery in the Southern Hemisphere market.

Hyundai Motor's trend is relatively stable, remaining unchanged compared to 2019. By 2024, its global market share will be around 7.6%. It performs well in other markets in Asia, but its performance in China has been consistently weak due to its weak product competitiveness.

Suzuki's market performance is strong, mainly driven by strong performance in markets such as Japan. Honda Group's performance this year has also declined by 1.6% compared to 2019, showing poor performance in the Chinese market.

Mercedes-Benz and BMW Group from Germany have performed steadily. The pressure in the traditional luxury car market in China has increased, and luxury car demand has shifted towards domestically produced high-end vehicles due to changes in consumer demand.