根据《推土机市场规模与前景分析报告2024》，2023 年全球推土机市场总规模达到322.92 亿元，中国推土机市场规模达到118.06 亿元，预计推土机市场将以7.56%的复合年增长率增长，到2029 年全球推土机市场总规模将会达到452.24 亿元。公司推土机产品国内市场占有率连续多年始终保持60%以上，推土机产品以绝对优势领先其他生产制造商，有望充分受益于行业高增速增长。On October 30, Shantui Co., Ltd. released its results report for the third quarter of 2024: Q1-Q3 of 2024 achieved operating income of 9.836 billion yuan (+30.64%), net profit to mother of 0.674 billion yuan (+34.16% year over year), and net profit of non-return to mother of 0.662 billion yuan (+42.51% year over year). Among them, Q3 2024 achieved operating income of 3.328 billion yuan (YoY +24.85%), net profit attributable to mother 0.256 billion yuan (YoY +27.64%), and net profit not attributable to mother of 0.252 billion yuan (YoY +25.41%).
Key points of investment
The bulldozer market has broad prospects, and the company is expected to benefit as an industry leader
According to the “Bulldozer Market Size and Prospect Analysis Report 2024”, the total global bulldozer market reached 32.292 billion yuan in 2023, and China's bulldozer market reached 11.806 billion yuan. The bulldozer market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.56%, and the total global bulldozer market will reach 45.224 billion yuan by 2029. The domestic market share of the company's bulldozer products has remained above 60% for many years. Bulldozer products lead other manufacturers by an absolute advantage and are expected to fully benefit from the high growth rate of the industry.
The company actively grasps export opportunities, and profits are expected to increase
Since 2018, bulldozer exports have continued to expand, from 0.063 billion US dollars in 2018 to 0.772 billion US dollars in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 65.07%. The company has been deeply involved overseas for many years, and its products are exported to more than 160 countries and regions. Overseas, it has mainly adopted an agency marketing model. It has now developed more than 160 overseas agents, 10 overseas subsidiaries, and 31 overseas offices and service stations, forming a complete overseas marketing channel. As of H1 in 2023, the company's overseas revenue accounted for more than 55%, and the gross margin of overseas business was 11.75pct higher than that of domestic business. In the future, as the company actively grasps export opportunities, increases the development of emerging markets and overseas localization, and focuses on expanding regions such as Africa, Europe, America, Southeast Asia, etc., the share of overseas revenue is expected to increase, thus further increasing profits.
Appropriate cost control, net interest rate increase
In Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 16.44% (YoY -2.44pct), achieving a net profit margin of 7.72% (YoY +0.17pct). The year-on-year decline in gross margin was mainly due to the company's active expansion of overseas markets, foreign revenue growth, and a corresponding sharp increase in costs; in Q3 2024, the company's expenditure ratio for the period was 9.15% (-2.46pct yoy), and expenses were properly managed, with sales/management/R&D/finance expenses ratios of 3.52%/2.74%/2.15%/0.74%, year on year respectively Change +0.14/-0.49/-2.09/-0.02pct.
Profit forecasting
It is predicted that the company's revenue for 2024-2026 will be 13.931, 16.063, 17.431 billion yuan, and EPS will be 0.65, 0.81, and 1.00 yuan, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 13, 10, and 8 times, respectively, giving it a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
Macroeconomic policy adjustments and the risk of international instability; exchange rate risk; risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; risk of falling short of expectations in fund-raising projects.
