维持“增持” 评级。公司公告2024 年前三季度实现营收266.49 亿元/-19.28%，归母净利27.98 亿元/-61.51%。单三季度实现营收89.95亿元/同比-19.19%/环比0%，归母净利5.72 亿元/同比-71.03%/环比-39.09% ， 低于市场预期。我们下调公司24-26 年EPS 预测1.11/1.51/1.68(-0.56/-0.58/-0.87)元。根据可比公司2025 年12.31x PE，上调目标价至18.55(+1.04)元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Performance was slightly lower than expected. 2024Q3 production and sales recovered significantly month-on-month. Increased costs combined with falling coal prices affected profits. It is expected that the year-on-year pressure on the Q4 profit side will ease.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company announced that it achieved revenue of 26.649 billion yuan/ -19.28% and net profit of 2.798 billion yuan/ -61.51% in the first three quarters of 2024. The third quarter achieved revenue of 8.995 billion yuan/-19.19%/0% month-on-month, and net profit to mother of 0.572 billion yuan/-71.03% YoY/-39.09% month-on-month, lower than market expectations. We lowered the 24-26 EPS forecast by 1.11/1.51/1.68 (-0.56/-0.58/-0.87). According to the comparable company's 2025 12.31x PE, the target price was raised to 18.55 (+1.04) yuan to maintain the “gain” rating.
2024Q3 production and sales recovered significantly from month to month, and production and sales basically recovered to the same period in the first three quarters.
24Q1-3, the company produced 42.47 million tons of raw coal, -4.82% year on year; commercial coal sales volume was 38.1 million tons, -5.79% year over year. Among them, mixed coal production was 21.21 million tons, mixed coal sales were 21.24 million tons; injection coal production was 14.99 million tons, and jet coal sales were 14.88 million tons. The 24Q3 company produced 14.8 million tons of raw coal, -1.8% year-on-year and -2.6% month-on-month; commercial coal sales were 13.52 million tons, +1.8% year-on-year and +6.1% month-on-month. Sales both recovered year over year. In mid-May, Shanxi Province emphasized that enterprises across the province began to “increase production.” In mid-May, along with Shanxi Province requiring enterprises in the province to “increase production,” the constraints were basically eliminated in June, and capacity utilization rates recovered rapidly. We expect Q4's production and sales to continue to recover, and the moment of greatest pressure on production and sales has passed.
Increased costs combined with falling coal prices became a core factor affecting profits in Q3. The company's comprehensive sales price of commercial coal in the first three quarters was 662.15 yuan/ton, -12% year-on-year. The price of a single Q3 ton of coal was 624 yuan/ton, -14.3% /month-on-month; the cost of a ton of coal was 385 yuan/ton, +7.0% /month-on-month +5.3%; gross profit per ton of coal was 240 yuan/ton, -34% /month-on-month. Q3 tons of coal sold for -53 yuan/ton month-on-month. The cost was +19 yuan/ton, which became the core factor affecting Q3 profits.
Looking at Q4, the company's current period of maximum production and sales pressure has passed, and it is expected that the cost side of Q4 will recover. At the same time, considering that at the end of the year, with the gradual implementation of special bonds and the progress of localized bonds, demand for construction and construction is expected to recover one after another, which is expected to drive coal prices back to an upward channel. The 23Q4 price base is low (650 yuan/ton), and it is expected that the year-on-year pressure on the profit side may be limited.
Back-up resources can be continued without worry. The company announced in August that the company was auctioning for resources. The exploration area of the prospecting rights is 72.4173 square kilometers and the amount of coal resources is 819.575 million tons, which is expected to bring an annual production capacity of 8 million tons. It is currently actively exploring the resources.
Risk warning: coal prices fell beyond expectations; macroeconomic recovery fell short of expectations
