Q3 拓店节奏放缓，线上业务逆势增长。截止24Q3，公司门店总数为5235 家，较24Q2净增加5 家，其中自营/加盟门店分别为349/4886 家，较24Q2 环比+6/-1 家。公司已深耕布局淘天、京东、拼多多等主流电商平台，积极开展深度合作，优化运营策略，并匹配消费者偏好布局时尚银饰等品类，推动线上Q3 逆势增长。24Q3 自营/电商/加盟渠道分别实现营收3.91/4.62/17.28 亿元，同比分别-3.65%/+14.07%/-51.58%。Key points of investment:
The company announced its 2024 three-quarter report, and the results were in line with expectations. 1) 24Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 10.809 billion yuan, -13.49% year-on-year, net profit of 0.855 billion yuan, or -21.95% year-on-year, deducted non-net profit of 0.837 billion yuan, or -20.55% year-on-year. 2) 24Q3 achieved revenue of 2.612 billion yuan, a year-on-year net profit of -40.91%, net profit to mother of 0.253 billion yuan, -28.7% year-on-year, and deducted non-net profit of 0.252 billion yuan, or -27.23% year-on-year.
Due to the dual impact of gold price+desire to spend, the trend of gold growth under pressure continues, and the decline in the mosaic category narrows. According to the company's announcement, the revenue of 24Q1-Q3 plain gold/mosaic products was 8.896/0.585 billion yuan, -15.04%/-22.46% year-on-year. We believe that the double impact of gold price+spending intention continues. According to the China Gold Association, domestic gold jewelry consumption in 24Q1-Q3 reached 400 tons, -27.53% year-on-year, and 283 tons of gold bars and coins, +27.14% over the same period last year. Consumption of gold jewelry and gold bars reached 130/69 tons in 24Q3, -29.2%/-9.2% year-on-year, respectively. Weak terminal sales have affected the continued decline in franchisees' willingness to replenish goods. 24Q3 continued to increase product development and iterative optimization to enhance brand potential. Inlay/plain gold achieved 0.213/1.934 billion yuan, -7.06%/-48.28% over the same period, and the decline in mosaic narrows. From January to September, the company earned 1.262/1.022/6.525 billion yuan from its own offline/e-commerce and franchise gold products, +12.85%/-7.44%/-19.92% compared with the same period last year. The revenue of 24Q3 gold products in its own offline/online/franchise channels was 0.358/0.261/1.291 billion yuan, respectively, -3.68%/+5.10%/-58.15% year-on-year.
Q3 The pace of store expansion has slowed down, and online business has bucked the trend. As of 24Q3, the total number of the company's stores was 5,235, a net increase of 5 compared to 24Q2. Among them, the number of own/franchise stores was 349/4886, respectively, and +6/-1 compared to 24Q2. The company has deeply cultivated the layout of mainstream e-commerce platforms such as Taotian, JD, and Pinduoduo, actively carried out in-depth cooperation, optimized operating strategies, and matched consumer preferences in categories such as fashion silverware to drive the growth of online Q3 against the trend. 24Q3 self-operated/e-commerce and franchise channels achieved revenue of 0.391/0.462/1.728 billion yuan respectively, -3.65%/+14.07%/-51.58% year-on-year respectively.
Gross margin improved markedly, and the impact of opening self-operated stores and the increase in advertising costs continued. 24Q1-Q3 and 24Q3 achieved gross profit of 2.224/0.718 billion yuan, -2.3%/-8.7% year-on-year, gross margin of 20.58%/27.48%, and +2.36pct/+9.70pct year-on-year. We believe the main reason is the continuous upward cycle of gold prices and the increase in revenue share of high-margin categories. The cost rate for the 24Q3 period was 12.62%, +7.03pct year-on-year. Sales Expense Rate/Management Expense Rate/R&D Expense Rate/Financial Expense Ratio were 11.29%/0.94%/0.11%/0.28%, respectively, +6.31/+0.38/+0.05/+0.29pct.
Among them, the increase in self-operated stores led to corresponding increases in employee remuneration, rental expenses, and advertising campaigns, while the increase in e-commerce channel expenses comprehensively increased sales expenses.
Maintain a “buy” rating. As one of the largest jewelry brand operators in China, the company has barriers in store networks, product matrices, online e-commerce and supply chains. Looking ahead to Q4 entering the traditional peak consumption season, gold prices are showing a steady upward trend, which is expected to help weaken wait-and-see sentiment. In this context, the company continues to consolidate its own brand and product barriers, promote high-quality store development, and save long-term development momentum. Considering the uncertain impact of gold prices on terminal consumption disturbances, we lowered our 24-year profit forecast. We expect net profit to be 1.086/1.218/1.347 billion yuan for 24-26 (original value was 1.279/1.436/1.625 billion yuan), respectively, corresponding to 11/10/9 times PE, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Gold prices fluctuate greatly, showrooms fall short of expectations, and industry competition intensifies.
