分业务来看，24Q1-3 基础设施建设、设计咨询、装备制造、房地产开发业务分别实现营收7132、129、198、219 亿元，同比分别-7.66%、-4.08%、-1.08%、-13.22%。订单角度，24Q1-3 公司新签合同额15278.6 亿元，同比-15.2%，其中境内、境外分别新签14046.3、1232.3 亿元，同比分别-16.1%、-3.2%。Third quarter results are under pressure. Focus on the speed of order carry-over in the fourth quarter
The company 24Q1-3 achieved operating income of 818.479 billion yuan, -7.30% year-on-year, realized net profit of 20.57 billion yuan, year-on-year net profit of -14.33%, net profit of 19.011 billion yuan, or -15.87% year-on-year, of which Q3 achieved revenue of 275.194 billion yuan in a single quarter, -6.22% year-on-year, and net profit of 6.292 billion yuan. In billion yuan, -19.70% year over year, revenue results for the third quarter were under significant pressure. As of the end of 24Q3, the company's unfinished contract amount was 6325.26 billion yuan, +7.6% over the same period, about 5.01 times the revenue scale in 23. Abundant orders in hand are expected to provide good support for subsequent revenue growth and performance release. In the context of rising expectations of fiscal stimulus, focus on the speed of order carry-over for subsequent companies. Considering that the company's performance fell short of our previous expectations, we lowered our 24-26 net profit forecast to 31.1, 31.9, and 32.4 billion yuan (previous values were 35.4, 37.1, and 38.9 billion yuan). As the main infrastructure force for central enterprises, we are optimistic about the improvement in operating quality and efficiency and report quality improvements brought about by subsequent state-owned enterprise reforms. At the same time, the mineral resources sector is expected to build a second growth curve and maintain a “buy” rating.
Construction real estate continues to be under pressure, and emerging businesses are growing rapidly
By business, the 24Q1-3 infrastructure construction, design consulting, equipment manufacturing, and real estate development business achieved revenue of 7132, 12.9, 19.8, and 21.9 billion yuan respectively, which was -7.66%, -4.08%, -1.08%, and -13.22% year-on-year respectively. From an order perspective, 24Q1-3 signed a new contract amount of 1527.86 billion yuan, or -15.2% year-on-year, of which domestic and overseas new contracts were 1404.63 and 123.23 billion yuan respectively, -16.1% and -3.2%, respectively.
1) In terms of engineering construction, 24Q1-3 signed a new contract of 1085.73 billion yuan, -19.2% year-on-year. Among the segments, railways, highways, municipal administration, urban rail, housing construction, and other businesses signed new contracts of 1695.9, 927.8, 1097.2, 38.49, 581.47, and 93.68 billion yuan, respectively, -5.2%, -33.7%, -27.9%, -58.0%, -20.9%, and +102.2%, respectively. 2) In terms of real estate development, 24Q1-3 achieved sales of 22.76 billion yuan, or -51.6% year-on-year, adding 0.398 million square meters of land reserves, +31.4% year-on-year, and 11.971 million square meters of land storage area at the end of the third quarter. 3) Emerging businesses, 24Q1-3 signed new contracts of 211.05 billion yuan, +23.4% year-on-year. Among them, new contracts for water conservancy and hydropower, clean energy, and urban operations grew rapidly.
Gross margin continued to be under pressure, and net cash flow outflow narrowed in Q3
The company's 24Q1-3 gross margin was 8.8%, -0.29pct year on year; Q3 single quarter gross margin was 8.72%, year-on-year -0.85pct. Among them, gross margins for infrastructure construction, design consulting, equipment manufacturing, real estate development, and other businesses were 7.56%, 24.53%, 22.73%, 12.70%, and 17.28%, respectively, and -0.41, -2.67, +1.18, -0.32, and +0.98pct, respectively. The 24Q1-3 company's expense ratio for the period was 5.06%, +0.04pct year on year. Among them, sales, management, R&D, and finance expense ratios were +0.03, +0.05, and +0.04pct year over year, respectively. The total asset and credit impairment losses of the 24Q1-3 company totaled 2.924 billion yuan, with an additional loss of 0.585 billion yuan over the same period last year. Under the combined influence, 24Q1-3 net margin was 2.74%, -0.24pct year over year.
In terms of cash flow, the net CFO of 24Q1-3 was -71.257 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37.534 billion yuan. The net outflow in the Q3 single quarter narrowed by 1.83 billion yuan year-on-year.
Risk warning: Prices of mineral resources fluctuate greatly, order carry-over speed falls short of expectations, increased competition among central enterprises has led to declining profit margins, and infrastructure investment growth falls short of expectations.
