According to the Intelligence Finance App, Sealand Securities released a research report stating that from a broad perspective, the investment logic of the industry remains unchanged. It is expected that in the coming years, the coal industry will continue to maintain a tight balance state. The coal industry has high asset quality, ample cash flow, and listed coal companies continue to exhibit the 'five highs' characteristics of 'high profitability, high cash flow, high barriers to entry, high dividends, and high safety margins.' It is recommended to grasp the value attributes of the coal sector at low levels and maintain a 'recommended' rating for the coal mining industry.

The main views of Zhonghai Securities are as follows:

In the third quarter of 2024, the proportion of the market value of coal industry stocks held by actively managed funds decreased to 1.18%, a decrease of -0.36 percentage points (calculated according to the Shanhua first-level coal industry, with funds primarily categorized as actively managed, including general stock funds, partial equity hybrid funds, and flexible allocation funds). Among the top 5 in terms of fund quantity holding positions are China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal Industry, China Coal Energy, China Shenhua HK, and Huaibei Mining. Regarding quarterly position changes, the companies that funds increased positions most were Wintime Energy, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining, Huaibei Mining, China Coal Xinji Energy, and Beijing Haohua Energy Resource. The companies that funds reduced positions most were Gansu Energy Chemical, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group, China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal Industry.

Looking at different types of coal:

Thermal Coal: The main companies that funds increased positions in this quarter were China Coal Xinji Energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource, Shanxi Coal International Energy Group, Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation, and China Coal Energy HK; The main companies that funds reduced positions were Gansu Energy Chemical, China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry, Yankuang Energy, Yankuang Energy HK, Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry, and China Shenhua HK;

Coking Coal and Coke: The main companies that funds increased positions in this quarter were Wintime Energy, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining, Huaibei Mining, Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal, and Shanxi Meijin Energy; The main companies that funds reduced positions were Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group, Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co., Ltd, Shanxi Coking, Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry and Electricity Power;

For the anthracite sector: The main companies reducing positions this quarter are Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy and Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture.

Looking at thermal coal, recent port and production area prices have been weak due to the early recovery of maintenance capacity and the month-on-month decline in daily consumption demand from power plants. However, with the start of the winter coal replenishment season after the weather turns cold, and the limited supply of hydropower during the dry season, there is strong support for future demand for thermal coal. Coal prices may have the potential to rebound after a short-term narrow fluctuation trend, driven upwards again.

In terms of the coking coal industry chain, the increase in pig iron production provides rigid demand support. However, as steel prices continue to decline, coking enterprises have temporarily suspended raw material purchases and reduced on-site inventory trends due to pessimism, resulting in overall weak demand. Future observations are required to monitor the evolution of downstream demand. If improved macroeconomic sentiment boosts downstream purchasing activity and speculative demand returns, combined with the current low inventories of producing companies and end users, coking coal prices may reverse their downward trend.

Key Focus Areas:

(1) Coal stocks with larger elasticity: Yankuang Energy (600188.SH), Guanghui Energy (600256.SH), Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry (601001.SH).

(2) Coking coal stocks with larger elasticity: Huaibei Mining Holdings (600985.SH), Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining (601666.SH), Shanxi Lu’an Environmental Energy Dev.Co.,Ltd (601699.SH), Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group (000983.SZ).

(3) Stable investment targets: China Coal Energy (601898.SH), Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.SH), China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH), Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation (002128.SZ), China Coal Xinji Energy (601918.SH).

Risk Alerts: 1) Risks of economic growth falling short of expectations; 2) Risks of policy adjustments exceeding expectations; 3) Risks of continuous substitution by wind power; 4) Risks of coal import impact; 5) Risks of key focus companies' performance falling short of expectations; 6) Risks of calculation errors.