该行预计，国寿第四季销售趋于疲弱，因客户需求在8和9月已提前释放，加上公司可能将重点转向2025年的“开门红”销售准备和代理招募/培训。因此，该行料公司今年的新业务价值增长17%。UBS expects China Life Insurance's new business value to grow by 17% this year.
According to 36Kr APP, UBS released a research report stating a 'buy' rating for China Life Insurance (02628) with a target price of HK$19.
China Life Insurance's new business value in the first three quarters, adjusted, increased by 25% year-on-year, meeting the bank's expectations; net income increased by 1.74 times year-on-year to 105 billion RMB, surpassing the market's forecast range of 80 billion RMB and the profit joy expectation growth range of 1.65 times to 1.85 times. In addition, China Life's third-quarter net income surged 18 times year-on-year, with a strong performance of 15% increase in net asset value during the quarter.
The bank expects China Life's sales to weaken in the fourth quarter, as customer demand was released early in August and September, coupled with the company possibly shifting focus to preparations for a strong start in 2025 and agent recruitment/training. Therefore, the bank expects a 17% growth in the company's new business value this year.
Regarding dividend policy, the bank points out that China Life believes that profit is not the sole consideration, but also needs to consider business development needs, solvency, and relevant rules/regulations. Assuming a payout ratio of 30%, the bank estimates the company's dividend per share at CNY 1.14, implying an H-share dividend yield of 7.6%.
