上调盈利预测 ，维持“增持”评级。公司 24Q3业绩符合预期，考虑到24Q4 以旧换新拉动内销增长提速，因此上调24-26 年预测。预计公司24-26 年归母净利润为394.4/433.8/464.5 亿元（ 原374.4/407.6/436.2 亿元），同比+17%/10%/7%。参考家电可比公司25年平均估值，给予25 年15X PE，上调目标价至90.72 元。Introduction to this report:
The company's 24Q3 performance is in line with expectations, domestic sales are extremely resilient, and overseas is growing rapidly. Driven by the 24Q4 national supplement, the beneficiary share of leading companies has further increased, and the growth rate is expected to accelerate month-on-month.
Key points of investment:
Raise the profit forecast and maintain the “gain” rating. The company's 24Q3 performance was in line with expectations. Considering that the 24Q4 trade-in led to an acceleration in domestic sales growth, the 24-26 forecast was raised. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 39.44/43.38/46.45 billion yuan (previously 37.44/40.76/43.62 billion yuan), +17%/10%/7% year-on-year. Refer to the company's 25-year average valuation for home appliances, give 25-year 15X PE, and raise the target price to 90.72 yuan.
24Q3 results are in line with expectations. The company achieved operating income of 320.35 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, +9.57% year on year, net profit of 31.699 billion yuan, or +14.37% year on year; of these, 2024Q3 achieved operating income of 102.228 billion yuan, +8.08% year over year, and net profit to mother of 10.895 billion yuan, +14.86% year over year.
Revenue: Domestic sales are resilient, and exports continue to grow faster. Split 24Q3 revenue situation: Looking at domestic and foreign sales, although domestic home appliance retail was under pressure from July to August, the company's performance was stable. Since September, it has benefited from state subsidies. The leading position has had a significant advantage, and its share has increased dramatically. We expect the 24Q3 domestic sales revenue to be +5% year-on-year, which is significantly better than other competitors. Overseas demand is relatively steady, and the company's OBM business maintained a high growth rate of +25% year-on-year in January-September. Q3+ is expected to be close to 20%, and overall exports +10%. Looking ahead to 24Q4, as the innovative O2O model promotes trade-in, the C-side business covers 0.03 million stores nationwide. Under the concentrated efforts of national supplements, the leading advantage will become more significant, and domestic sales growth will further accelerate.
Net cash on accounts increased further, cash flow was strong, and the quality of performance growth was high. The 24Q3 company's monetary cash+transactional financial assets totaled 167.9 billion yuan, +63.2 billion yuan at the end of 24H1, total short-term and long-term loans totaled 38.4 billion yuan, and -19.9 billion yuan compared to the end of 24H1. Other current and non-current assets totaled $129.3 billion, compared to 24H0.1-2.8 billion yuan. Refer to the 24 interim report, including fixed income products, large deposit certificates, and deposit-type assets of 121.8 billion yuan. We expect the scale of this type of asset to be relatively stable in 24Q3. Therefore, the company's cash/financial management assets, after deducting interest-bearing liabilities, are close to 250 billion, accounting for about 45% of the current market value. Deferred tax assets and other current liabilities continued to increase month-on-month. At the same time, 24Q3 achieved net operating cash flow of 26.776 billion yuan, +78.5% year-on-year. It shows that 24Q3 performance growth is of high quality.
Risk warning: raw material prices fluctuate, cost pressure remains unabated, and real estate completion performance transmission affects post-cycle demand
