3Q24 量价承压，主品牌表现平淡。1）整体来看，公司1-3Q24 量/价分别同比-7.0%/+0.5%至678.5 万吨/4268 元，销量表现弱于行业整体水平（1-9 月全国啤酒累计产量同比-1.5%）。2）分季度来看，公司3Q24 量、价分别同比-5.1%/-0.2%至215.5 万吨/4126 元。销量受餐饮需求减弱影响，同比有所下降。吨价同比下降或系竞争加剧下货折增加所致。3）分产品来看，公司3Q24 主品牌/其他品牌产品销量分别同比-4.1%/-6.3%，主品牌销量占比同比小幅提升0.6pct 至56.8%，表现平淡。其中，中高端以上产品3Q24 销量同比-4.7%，销量占比同比小幅提升0.2pct 至41.0%。Tsingtao Brewery disclosed its 2024 three-quarter report. 1-3Q24 achieved revenue of 28.96 billion yuan, or -6.5% year on year, and realized net profit of 4.99 billion yuan, +1.7% year over year; of these, 3Q24 achieved revenue of 8.89 billion yuan, -5.3% year over year, and realized net profit of 1.35 billion yuan, or -9.0% year on year. The 3Q24 company's volume and price were under pressure, the main brand's performance was lackluster, cost dividends continued to be realized, and profit levels declined slightly. Follow-up attention will be paid to the restoration of catering channels, and volume and price are expected to return to a growth trajectory.
We expect the company's 24-26 EPS to be 3.28, 3.58, and 3.84 yuan, with a year-on-year ratio of +4.9%, +9.1%, and +7.1%, respectively, maintaining the buying rating.
Key points to support ratings
3Q24 volume and price pressure was on, and the main brand's performance was lackluster. 1) Overall, the company's 1-3Q24 volume/price was -7.0%/+0.5% year-on-year to 6.785 million tons/4268 yuan, respectively. The sales performance was weaker than the overall level of the industry (the cumulative production of beer in January-September was -1.5%). 2) On a quarterly basis, the company's 3Q24 volume and price were -5.1%/-0.2% year-on-year, respectively, to 2.155 million tons/4126 yuan. Sales declined year over year due to weakening demand for food and beverage. The year-on-year decline in tonnage prices may be due to increased competition and increased discounts. 3) By product, the sales volume of the company's 3Q24 main brand/other brand products was -4.1%/-6.3%, respectively. The share of main brand sales increased slightly by 0.6 pct to 56.8% year over year, and the performance was lackluster. Among them, the 3Q24 sales volume of high-end products was -4.7% year-on-year, and the share of sales increased slightly by 0.2 pct to 41.0% year over year.
Cost dividends continued to be paid out, and profit levels declined slightly in 3Q24. 1) On the cost side, benefiting from the reduction in the cost of raw materials such as barley, the company's 1-3Q24/3Q24 tonne cost was -2.9%/-2.2% to 2486/2388 yuan, driving the company's 1-3Q24/3Q24 gross margin +2.0/+1.2pct to 41.8%/42.1%; 2) On the cost side, the company's 3Q24 sales/management/finance expense ratio increased to +2.4/-0.9/-0.4pct to 14.1%/-1.6%, respectively. , management costs are well controlled. 3) At the profit level, due to volume and price pressure, the company's 3Q24 net profit margin fell slightly by 0.6 pct to 15.2% year on year.
Follow-up attention will be paid to the restoration of catering channels, and volume and price are expected to return to a growth trajectory. The company has high-quality brand assets, a broad channel network, and also adheres to high-quality development. In recent years, while continuing to consolidate and enhance its market position within the “one vertical, two horizontal” strategic belt, the company has actively promoted product structure upgrading. We judge that subsequent demand for catering is expected to continue to improve following macroeconomic recovery, and the company is expected to return to a growth trajectory in volume and price, driven by the restoration of catering channels.
valuations
The company's 3Q24 volume and price are under pressure. According to sales volume, tonnage, and cost changes disclosed in the three-quarter report, we adjusted our previous profit forecast. The company's EPS for 24-26 is 3.28, 3.58, and 3.84 yuan, which is +4.9%, +9.1%, and +7.1% year-on-year, corresponding to 20.9/19.1/17.9 times PE, maintaining the purchase rating.
The main risks faced by ratings
Fluctuating raw material costs, food safety risks.
