业绩短期承压，资管自营表现强势。1）2024 年前三季度，兴业证券实现营业收入和归母净利润88.1、13.2 亿元，同比分别-0.5%、-16.5%，加权ROE 同比同比-3.88pct 至2.31%；2）单季度来看，Q3 实现营收、归母净利润分别为34.19、3.8 亿元，同比分别+78.3%、+276.0%； 3）分业务条线来看，经纪、投行、资管、利息、自营收入分别为13.1、4.4、1.2、8.8、22.2 亿元，同比分别-26.0%、-43.3%、+6.0%、-38.6%、+165.2%，资管自营表现强势。Description of the event
Societe Generale Securities released its 2024 three-quarter report. During the reporting period, it achieved operating income and net profit attributable to mother of 8.81 and 1.32 billion yuan, respectively; the weighted average return on net assets was -3.88pct to 2.31% year over year; operating leverage after excluding customer capital was -1.1% to 3.41 times that of the beginning of the year.
Incident comments
Performance was under pressure in the short term, and asset management showed strong self-management performance. 1) In the first three quarters of 2024, Societe Generale Securities achieved operating income and net profit of 8.81 and 1.32 billion yuan, respectively, and weighted ROE of -3.88pct to 2.31% year over year; 2) Looking at a single quarter, Q3 achieved revenue and net profit to mother of 3.419 and 0.38 billion yuan, respectively, +78.3% and +276.0% year-on-year; 3) By business line, brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest, and self-operated income were 13.1, respectively. 4.4, 0.12, 0.88, and 2.22 billion yuan, respectively, -26.0%, -43.3%, +6.0%, -38.6%, and +165.2% year-on-year, respectively. Asset management showed strong performance.
The asset management business grew steadily, and proprietary investment showed strong performance. 1) The company's asset management business revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.12 billion yuan, +6.0% year-on-year, achieving steady growth; the company's large-scale asset management layout was leading, with 2024Q3 Moxingzheng Global Fund non-cargo-based AUM279.21 billion yuan, -1.5%. Equity and fixed income funds all ranked in the top ten in the industry over the past ten years; its subsidiary, Xingzheng Asset Management has completed the public offering qualification and gradually improved the public offering product line layout; 2) The company achieved 2.22 billion yuan in self-employment revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 , +165.2% year over year. Among them, Q3 achieved 1.03 billion in self-operating income in a single quarter, turning a loss into a profit year over year, and +21.2% month-on-month; the scale of financial investment continued to expand. At the end of Q3, it was 138.21 billion yuan, +12.6% compared to the beginning of the year. Self-operating performance was very impressive, which strongly supported performance.
Wealth management continues to be deeply cultivated, and the investment banking business is under pressure along with the market. 1) The cumulative market volume for the first three quarters of 2024 and the average daily turnover in Q3 was 797.3 and 677.6 billion yuan respectively, -10.6% and -15.1% year-on-year respectively. The corporate brokerage business declined with the market, achieving revenue of 1.31 billion yuan, or -26.0% year-on-year; wealth management transformation continued to advance, and the consignment business developed in an orderly manner; 2) The scale of equity financing in the first three quarters of the market maintained a contraction trend. The total scale of IPO and refinancing was 47.9 and 183.8 billion yuan year-on-year, respectively- 85.2%, -72.1% The company's equity business was clearly affected by the market. The IPOs, equity refinancing, and bond underwriting scales in the first three quarters were 0.54, 0.21, and 137.02 billion yuan, respectively, -89.8%, -69.7%, and +3.4% year-on-year; in terms of share, the IPOs, equity refinancing, and bond underwriting market shares were 1.1%, 0.1%, and 1.4%, respectively. The IPO share fell 0.5 pct year on year, and the share of equity refinancing and bond financing remained basically unchanged.
The company's performance has been under pressure in the short term, but in the long run, as the market recovers, I am optimistic that the company will use business synergy effects to accelerate the growth of the two-wheel drive development strategy through wealth management and institutionalization processes. Net profit attributable to 2024-2025 is estimated to be 2.063 billion yuan and 2.34 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding PE is 27.09 and 23.88 times, respectively, and corresponding PB is 0.96 and 0.92 times, respectively, maintaining the purchase rating.
Risk warning
1. A sharp correction in the equity market;
2. Regulatory policies have been tightened.
