营收与盈利前三季度同比下滑显著。24Q1-3，公司实现营收143.1 亿元，同比-22.1%，Q3 单季同比-2.7%、环比Q2 单季-8.5%，为47.9 亿元；24Q1-3 公司归母净利润43.0 亿元，同比-24.5%，Q3 单季同比+4.0%、环比Q2 单季-11.7%，为14.4 亿元。24Q1-3, 公司自营/ 经纪/ 投行/ 资管/ 信用业务营收占比分别为37.1%/26.2%/10.5%/6.5%/3.1%，同比分别+9.5/+2.6/-10.7/+1.3/-5.1pct，公司营收结构较上年同期变化显著，自营与经纪业务贡献主要营收。Incidents:
On October 30, CITIC Construction Investment announced its 2024 three-quarter report. The company achieved revenue of 14.31 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, down 22.1% year on year; net profit to mother was 4.3 billion yuan, down 24.5% year on year; the company's weighted average ROE for the first three quarters of 24 was 4.71%, a decrease of 2.34 pct from the same period last year; and basic earnings per share were 0.45 yuan/share.
Comment:
Revenue and profit declined significantly year-on-year in the first three quarters. With 24Q1-3, the company achieved revenue of 14.31 billion yuan, -22.1% YoY, Q3 -2.7% YoY, Q2 -8.5% quarter-on-quarter, 4.79 billion yuan; 24Q1-3's net profit to mother was 4.3 billion yuan, -24.5% YoY, Q3 +4.0% YoY, and Q2 -11.7% quarter-on-quarter, 1.44 billion yuan. 24Q1-3, the company's self-employed/ brokering/ investment banking/ asset management/ credit business accounted for 37.1%/26.2%/10.5%/6.5%/3.1% of revenue, respectively, +9.5/+2.6/-10.7/+1.3/-5.1 pct. The company's revenue structure changed significantly over the same period last year, and self-operated and brokerage businesses contributed the main revenue.
Brokerage revenue continued to be under pressure, and net interest income declined sharply year over year in the first three quarters. 24Q1-3, the average daily share base trading volume of the A-share market was 921 billion yuan, -8.6%; 24Q1-3 company's net brokerage revenue was 3.74 billion yuan, -13.4% year over year, -20.2% compared to the same period last year, and -3.0% month-on-month to Q2 single quarter, 1.23 billion yuan, mainly due to the decline in revenue from traditional businesses such as brokerage trading of securities in the A-share market. In terms of credit business, as of the end of September, the city's credit balance was 1.44 trillion yuan, -9.5%; 24Q1-3's net interest income from credit business was -70.3% of 0.45 billion yuan, and Q3's net interest income was 0.07 billion yuan, -84.5% year-on-year, and -69.4% month-on-month compared to the Q2 single quarter, mainly due to a decrease in interest income in the first three quarters. In the future, as the company's active wealth management layout progresses, brokerage business and institutional customer service business are expected to further open up revenue space.
The investment banking business continued to be under pressure, and the scale of IPO fund-raising declined sharply in the first three quarters. 24Q1-3, the number of IPOs and capital raised in the A-share market was 69 to 47.87 billion yuan, respectively, -73.9%/-85.2% year over year; the number of refinanciers and capital raised was 156 to 183.77 billion yuan, respectively, -60.5%/-72.1% year on year. The scale of market financing declined significantly year on year. 24Q1-3 raised 4.37 billion yuan in IPO capital, -88.5% year over year; market share was 9.6%, -1.98 pct year on year; 24Q1-3's net income from investment banking business was -2.7% to 0.92 billion yuan, which was affected by the slowdown in the pace of IPOs and refinancing in the A-share market, putting significant pressure on the company's investment banking business. In the long run, the company's investment banking business market platform has significant advantages and is still highly competitive.
The scale of proprietary investment increased significantly over the same period last year, and the revenue of the asset management business was under pressure. In terms of proprietary business, the size of the company's 24Q1-3 transactional financial assets was +14.8% to 231.99 billion yuan, compared to +8.3% at the end of the previous year. Since this year, bond market earnings have driven proprietary business revenue +4.8% to 5.31 billion yuan. The Q3 single quarter was +131.4% compared to the same period last year, and -10.4% month-on-month, to 1.8 billion yuan. Fluctuations in the securities market led to a year-on-year increase in the fair value of financial instruments, which contributed to the increase in investment business income. Net revenue from 24Q1-3's asset management business was -2.7% to 0.92 billion yuan. The Q3 quarter was -16.6% compared to the same period last year and -22.0% month-on-month, or 0.28 billion yuan. The public offering reform affected the year-on-year decline in the company's asset management business revenue in the first three quarters. In the future, with the improvement of the company's ability to specialize, systematize, and refine investment and research in asset management business, asset management business revenue is expected to increase.
Profit prediction and rating: As a listed brokerage firm with strong comprehensive strength, the company has a comprehensive and balanced development. It is expected to take the lead in benefiting from various capital market reform policies and marginal capital market improvement trends in the future. We predict that the company's net profit for 24-26 will be 60.6/66.5 (down 1.0%) /7.06 billion yuan, EPS will be 0.78/0.86/0.91 yuan, respectively, corresponding PE (A) will be 32.4/29.5/27.8 times, and PE (H) will be 10.8/9.9/9.3 times, respectively, maintaining the “neutral” rating for A-shares and maintaining the “gain” rating for H shares.
Risk warning: The downward pressure on the economy is increasing; active capital market reforms fall short of expectations.
