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浙江美大(002677):经营承压 静待拐点

Zhejiang Meida (002677): Operation is under pressure and waiting for the inflection point

tianfeng Securities ·  Oct 31, 2024 14:42

Incident: 24Q1-Q3's revenue was 0.654 billion yuan, 48.16% year on year, net profit to mother 0.107 billion yuan, -70.67% year over year, net profit without deduction of 0.106 billion yuan, or -70.72% year on year. 24Q3's revenue was 0.195 billion yuan, -60.18% YoY; Net profit to mother was 9.04 million yuan, -93.78% YoY; net profit after deduction was 8.9 million yuan, or -93.85% YoY.

Revenue is under pressure, and strategies are adjusted in line with trends. Against the backdrop of the downturn in the real estate market, the integrated stove category, which relies on high-tech housing, showed weak performance, and the company's short-term revenue was also under pressure. 24Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 0.654 billion yuan, -48% over the same period last year. Facing the increasingly competitive environment in the market, the company actively responds to market changes and adjusts its business strategy in a timely manner: designing and developing various trade-in integrated stove series products for the stock market, optimizing and integrating specialty store channels, and actively embracing new demand and stock markets. It is expected that operations will pick up in 24Q4 with policy support.

Cost and fee rigidity are dragging down performance. The overall gross profit margin of the 24Q3 company was 40.8%, -7.5 pcts year on year. Low demand and gross margin continued the year-on-year downward trend. On the cost side, 24Q3 company's sales/management/R&D/finance expenses rates were 24.3%/8.8%/4.5%/-0.6%, respectively, +16.9/+5.1/+1.3/-0.3 pcts, respectively. The cost ratio increased significantly year-on-year due to the decline in revenue. Under the combined influence, the company achieved a net interest rate of 4.6% to mother in 24Q3, -25.1 pcts year over year.

Investment advice: Driven by real estate, the integrated stove circuit's performance is lackluster. As a category pioneer and leading brand, Meida has achieved online & offline channel linkage, has many diversified marketing outlets, and continues to be ahead of peers in terms of sales scale, brand awareness, market influence, and market share. With the implementation and promotion of related industry support policies such as real estate policies and trade-in of home appliances, it is expected to help the industry recover and drive improvements in the company's revenue and profits. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 0.13/0.16/0.19 billion yuan, respectively (the previous value was 0.22/0.26/0.32 billion yuan, due to the lackluster Q3 revenue and profit performance, which lowered the 24-26 revenue profit forecast), corresponding to 37x/30x/25x.

Risk warning: the risk of rising raw material prices; the risk of fluctuations in the real estate market; the risk of increased market competition; the risk that demand for categories such as integrated stoves, cabinets, and integrated sinks falls short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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