毛利率基本稳定，汇兑损失和管理费用增加导致净利率有所下降Q3 单季度公司实现毛利率47.57%、净利率25.29%，分别同比-1.2 和-4.2pct，毛利率下滑主要系设备增长更快导致高毛利的墨水业务占比有所下降，同时墨水业务毛利率因年初降价略有下降。24Q3 公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别同比-1.66/+1.14/-0.62/+2.68pct，管理费用率提升推测系并购公司带来的人员薪酬提升，财务费用率有所提升，主要系汇兑损失增加，24Q3 人民币兑美元中间价提升约1.4%，中报披露公司在手美元折合人民币约2.9 亿元，或带来约400 万元汇兑损失，影响净利率约3pct。Honghua Mathematics released its three-quarter report: Q3 achieved revenue of 0.449 billion yuan (yoy +39.13%, qoq +0.33%) and net profit of 0.11 billion yuan (yoy +19.92%, qoq -3.35%). Q1-Q3 2024 achieved revenue of 1.265 billion yuan (yoy +43.36%), net profit to mother of 0.31 billion yuan (yoy +29.51%), after deducting non-net profit of 0.298 billion yuan (yoy +29.01%). The penetration rate of digital printing products increased rapidly during the year, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in the digital direct injection penetration rate in the future. They are optimistic about the company's leading position in the digital printing field and maintain an “increase” rating.
Revenue continues to grow rapidly, and the penetration rate of digital printing continues to increase
The 24Q3 company's revenue continues to grow rapidly. We estimate that Q3 ink revenue will grow at a rate of about 20%, and equipment will grow faster than ink. Competition in the domestic printing industry continued to intensify during the year, and the trend against small orders continued to be interpreted, leading to a rapid increase in the penetration rate of digital printing products. The company focuses on its main business and deepens the “equipment+consumables” business model. On the one hand, it continues to consolidate the advantages of digital printing equipment in the textile field, and on the other hand, it actively expands equipment space for various industrial applications such as book printing, building material finishes, and corrugated paper printing.
Gross margin was basically stable. Net profit margin declined due to increased exchange losses and management expenses. In Q3, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 47.57% and a net profit margin of 25.29%, compared to -1.2 and -4.2pct, respectively. The decline in gross margin was mainly due to faster equipment growth, which led to a decline in the share of the high-margin ink business. At the same time, the gross margin of the ink business declined slightly due to price cuts at the beginning of the year. The 24Q3 sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratio was -1.66/+1.14/-0.62/+2.68pct, respectively. The increase in management expenses was estimated to be an increase in personnel compensation brought about by mergers and acquisitions. The financial expense ratio increased mainly due to an increase in exchange losses. The median price of RMB 24Q3 against the US dollar increased by about 1.4%. The interim report revealed that the company had an equivalent dollar equivalent to RMB 0.29 billion, or about 4 million yuan in exchange losses, affecting the net interest rate of about 3 pcts.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Maintaining the previous profit forecast, we forecast net profit due to mother for 2024-2026 to be 0.429 billion yuan, 0.523 billion yuan, and 0.604 billion yuan, corresponding to 30, 24, and 21 times PE. Comparatively, the company's 25-year Wind unanimously expected an average PE value of 24 times. Considering the rapid increase in the digital printing penetration rate during the year, the related business had good long-term growth potential. The company was given 28 times PE in 24 years, with a target price of 81.5 yuan (previous value of 62.1 yuan), maintaining a “gain” rating.
Risk warning: 1) The increase in digital printing penetration falls short of expectations; 2) nozzle supply relies on imports; 3) the acquisition company's integration progress falls short of expectations.
