营收与盈利前三季度同比均有所回升。24Q1-3，公司实现营收290 亿元，同比+7.3%，Q3 单季同比+37.2%、环比Q2 单季+31.3%，为119.3 亿元；24Q1-3 公司归母净利润95.2 亿元，同比+10.4%，Q3 单季同比+56.2%、环比Q2 单季+78.4%，为45.1 亿元。24Q1-3,公司自营/经纪/投行/资管/信用业务营收占比分别为37.7%/15.4%/6.2%/9.9%/5.4%，同比分别+8.0/-3.5/-3.6/-1.7/-0.5pct，公司营收结构较上年同期变化显著，自营业务贡献主要营收。Incidents:
On October 30, Guotai Junan announced the 2024 three-quarter report. The company achieved revenue of 29 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, up 7.3% year on year; net profit to mother was 9.52 billion yuan, up 10.4% year on year; the company's weighted average ROE for the first three quarters of 24 was 5.97%, an increase of 0.35 pct over the same period last year; and basic earnings per share were 1.01 yuan/share.
Comment:
Both revenue and profit rebounded year over year in the first three quarters. With 24Q1-3, the company achieved revenue of 29 billion yuan, +7.3% YoY; Q3 +37.2% YoY; Q2 +31.3% quarter-to-quarter, or 11.93 billion yuan; 24Q1-3's net profit to mother was 9.52 billion yuan, +10.4% YoY; Q3 quarter-on-quarter +56.2% YoY; Q2 +78.4% quarter-on-quarter, or 4.51 billion yuan. 24Q1-3, the company's self-employed/brokering/investment banking/asset management/credit business accounted for 37.7%/15.4%/6.2%/9.9%/5.4% of revenue, respectively, +8.0/ -3.5/-3.6/-1.7/-0.5pct year-on-year, respectively. The company's revenue structure changed significantly over the same period last year, and its own business contributed the main revenue.
Brokerage revenue was under pressure, and net interest income declined slightly year over year. 24Q1-3, the average daily share base trading volume of the A-share market was 921 billion yuan, -8.6%; 24Q1-3 company's net brokerage revenue was 4.45 billion yuan, -12.7% year over year, -14.0% compared to the same period last year, and -12.9% month-on-month to Q2 single quarter, 1.38 billion yuan, mainly due to the decline in revenue from traditional businesses such as brokerage trading of securities in the A-share market. In terms of credit business, as of the end of September, the balance of the two loans in the city was 1.44 trillion yuan, -9.5%; 24Q1-3 companies' net interest income from credit business was -2.5% of 1.57 billion yuan, and Q3's net interest income was -24.4% month-on-month in Q2, mainly due to a decrease in the company's credit business interest income in the first three quarters. In the future, as the company's investment-driven big wealth management layout progresses, the brokerage business is expected to recover its performance.
Investment banking business continued to be under pressure, with revenue of -32.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters. 24Q1-3, the number of IPOs and capital raised in the A-share market was 69 to 47.87 billion yuan, respectively, -73.9%/-85.2% year over year; the number of refinanciers and capital raised was 156 to 183.77 billion yuan, respectively, -60.5%/-72.1% year on year. The scale of market financing declined significantly year on year.
24Q1-3 raised 3.03 billion yuan in IPO capital, -88.7%; market share was 6.6%, -1.5pct year on year; 24Q1-3's net income from investment banking business was -32.3% to 1.8 billion yuan, affected by the slow pace of A-share market IPOs and refinancing. The Q3 single quarter was -43.0% compared to the same period last year, +20.6% month-on-month, or 0.63 billion yuan. In the future, with the continuous improvement of the company's “industrial investment banking, integrated investment banking, and digital investment banking” business layout, the comprehensive revenue space for the investment banking business is expected to open up.
Proprietary business revenue was +36.2% year over year, while asset management revenue declined slightly year over year. In terms of self-operated business, the size of the company's 24Q1-3 transactional financial assets was -0.2% to 361.18 billion yuan, compared to -3.1% at the end of the previous year. Since this year, bond market revenue has driven +36.2% to 10.93 billion yuan. The Q3 single quarter was +123.0% compared to the same period last year, and +121.3% month-on-month compared to the Q2 single quarter, to 5.86 billion yuan. Fluctuations in the securities market led to a year-on-year increase in the fair value of financial instruments, which contributed to the increase in investment business income. Affected by the public offering fee reform, 24Q1-3's net revenue from the asset management business was -8.4% to 2.86 billion yuan. The Q3 single quarter was -9.1% compared to the same period last year, and -6.2% month-on-month compared to the Q2 single quarter, or 0.94 billion yuan.
In the future, with the improvement of the diversified layout of the company's asset management business, it is expected to boost revenue space.
Profit prediction and rating: As a leading listed brokerage firm with strong comprehensive strength, the company is expected to take the lead in benefiting from various capital market reform policies in the future. Considering the recovery in the capital market, we predict that the company's net profit for 24-26 will be 139.2 (up 56.6%) /155.3 (up 64.2%)/170.2 (up 72.7%) billion yuan, EPS will be 1.56/1.74/1.91 yuan, and the corresponding PE (A) will be 11.94/10.70/9.76 times, respectively. After considering mergers, acquisitions and restructuring of the company, its comprehensive strength will be further enhanced to maintain the “gain” rating.
Risk warning: The downward pressure on the economy is increasing; active capital market reforms fall short of expectations.
