3Q24 我们认为公司家用空调表现好于中央空调。1）中央空调：根据产业在线数据，7-8 月央空行业内销额同比下滑超过5%，且公司以工装渠道为主，我们预计公司3Q24 央空较为承压。2）家用空调：根据产业在线数据，7-9 月公司空调内外销出货量分别同比-15%/+44.1%（合计同比+12.4%），内销压力集中在7-8 月，9 月国内以旧换新补贴逐步落地以来，空调内销趋势积极，公司在新风空调上具备品牌力，4Q24 或能受益于产品结构优化，且根据产业在线空调出口排产数据，家用空调出口或依然保持较高增长。The company disclosed the 2024 three-quarter report. 9M2024 achieved total operating income of 70.579 billion yuan, +8.8% year over year, and net profit to mother of 2.793 billion yuan, +15.1% year over year. Among them, 3Q24 revenue was -0.08% year over year and net profit to mother -16.29% year over year. 3Q24's revenue and net profit performance were both weaker than our expectations (revenue and net profit attributable to mother +3% to +6% and -11% to -7%, respectively), mainly due to domestic sales pressure in 3Q24.
The company's overseas performance is more positive. The Mexican factory layout is expected to accelerate penetration into the Americas, the joint venture will enable the expansion of ASEAN brand building, while the country faces fierce competition. With the release of the effects of domestic renewal subsidies, domestic sales may gradually improve, which will help the company optimize its profit level. Maintain an “Overweight” rating.
3Q24 The performance of the company's central aviation and domestic aviation may be quite divided
3Q24 We think the company's household air conditioners perform better than central air conditioners. 1) Central air conditioning: According to industry online data, sales in the central air industry fell by more than 5% year on year in July-August, and the company mainly uses tooling channels. We expect the company's 3Q24 Central Air to be under pressure. 2) Household air conditioning: According to industry online data, domestic and foreign air conditioning shipments in July-September were -15%/+44.1%, respectively. Domestic sales pressure was concentrated in July-August. Since domestic trade-in subsidies were gradually implemented in September, the domestic sales trend of air conditioners has been positive. The company has brand power in fresh air conditioning. 4Q24 may benefit from product structure optimization, and according to the industry's online air conditioning export schedule data, household air conditioning exports may still maintain a high growth rate.
3Q24 The company's ice washing industry performed better overseas
3Q24 We believe that the company's ice washing has benefited from strong exports. According to industry online data, the company's domestic and foreign refrigerator sales and shipments in July-September were -6.0%/+21.9%, respectively (total +10.1% YoY). 4Q24 ice washing also benefits from domestic sales replacement demand, and according to the industry's online ice washing export schedule data, exports may be relatively moderate.
3Q24 gross margin was under pressure, and the cost ratio increased year-on-year
The company's 9M2024 gross margin was 21.12%, -0.98pct year-on-year. Among them, 3Q24 gross margin was -2.45 pct year over year. We believe that mainly due to the increase in the share of overseas revenue in 3Q24, and raw material inventory first out, raw material prices are also putting some pressure on gross margins. 9M2024, the company's overall cost ratio was +0.5pct year over year, and single quarter +0.1pct year over year, mainly affected by the increase in R&D cost rate/financial cost ratio.
Focus on the release of domestic replacement demand and the continued promotion of overseas business
We maintain our 24-26 EPS forecast of 2.36, 2.70, and 3.01 yuan. Using the segmented valuation method, CCAC and Home Appliances/Auto Zero Comparable Company Wind agree that the average PE value for 25 years is 11x/20x. Considering that the company's brand has advantages, benefiting from the release of replacement demand, we have given CCAC and Home Appliances 25-year 13xPE (3.696 billion yuan net profit), corresponding to 48.048 billion billion market value. The auto zero business slowly recovered, giving the zero auto business 20xPE (0.049) Net profit in billion), corresponding to a market value of 0.981 billion, corresponding to the overall target price of A shares of 35.37 yuan (previous value of $35.54), and referring to H/A share price = 77% in the past year, corresponding to HK$29.67 (previous value of $30.11) for H shares.
Risk warning: Prices of raw materials have risen sharply; real estate recovery is weak; demand for central air conditioning is cooling.
