截至2024Q3 末，公司管理面积达到4.01 亿平米, 同比+20%。2024Q1-Q3，公司物业管理业务实现新签年度合同额29.1 亿元，同比+4.3%，市场拓展保持稳健增长。2024H1，物业管理收入中，基础物业管理、平台增值服务、专业增值服务收入分别同比+16%、+4%、-3%，分别占比84.35%、3.4%、12.25%。基础物业、平台增值服务、专业增值服务毛利率分别为11.0%、9.9%、11.1%，分别同比+0.4、+0.1、-6.9pct。Key points of investment:
24Q1-Q3's net profit to mother was +4% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The cost ratio continued to improve, and the repurchase showed confidence. According to the company's announcement, for 2024Q1-Q3, the company achieved revenue of 12.16 billion yuan, +12.0%; net profit to mother of 0.62 billion yuan, +4.2% year over year, in line with market expectations; net profit of 0.59 billion yuan, +10.2% year over year; basic earnings per share of 0.58 yuan, +4.2% year on year; gross profit margin of 11.3%, -1.4 pct year on year; net profit margin to mother was 5.1%, -0.4 pct year on year; the three expenses ratio was 3.5%, y-1.0pct , has continued to improve since 2019; among them, the management fee rate was 2.8%, -0.6 pct year on year; the financial expense ratio was 0.2%, -0.3 pct year on year. Furthermore, the company recently announced that it plans to buy back the company's shares through centralized bidding transactions, fully demonstrating confidence in the company's future sustainable development and recognition of its long-term value.
At the end of 24Q3, the management area reached 0.4 billion square meters, +16% year-on-year, and the amount of new contracts signed in 3Q24 was +4% year-on-year, maintaining a steady increase.
By the end of 2024Q3, the company's management area reached 0.401 billion square meters, +20% over the same period last year. 2024Q1-Q3, the company's property management business achieved a new annual contract amount of 2.91 billion yuan, +4.3% over the same period last year, and market expansion maintained steady growth. 2024H1, of property management revenue, revenue from basic property management, platform value-added services, and professional value-added services was +16%, +4%, and -3%, respectively, accounting for 84.35%, 3.4%, and 12.25%, respectively. The gross margins of basic properties, platform value-added services, and professional value-added services were 11.0%, 9.9%, and 11.1%, respectively, +0.4, +0.1, and -6.9pct compared to the same period.
At the end of 24Q3, the commercial management area was 4.02 million square meters, +7.5% compared with the same period last year, and the quantity and quality of commercial operations increased. 2024H1, of asset management revenue, commercial operating income was 0.07 billion yuan, +17.3% year over year, gross profit margin 37.9%, +5.3 pct year on year; rental and operating income from holding property was 0.22 billion yuan, -1.4% year on year, gross profit margin of 57.5%, -0.9 pct year on year. At the end of 2024Q3, the company managed 71 commercial projects (including preparatory projects), with a management area of 4.02 million square meters, +7.5% over the same period; of these, 3 were self-owned, 58 were managed by China Merchants Shekou projects, and 10 third-party brand export projects. As China Merchants Shekou's commercial real estate layout expands, the company's asset operation business is expected to receive greater support.
Investment analysis opinion: Steady increase in performance, improvement in costs, repurchases show confidence, and maintain a “buy” rating. The investment balance is backed by the China Merchants Group, which strategically focuses on property management and asset management. The company has strong resource endowments and outstanding market-based expansion capabilities, and is expected to continue to lead the property management industry in the future; the company continues to optimize its organizational structure, reduce costs and improve quality and efficiency, and subsequent profit margins are expected to gradually recover, promoting high-quality development with equal emphasis on the company's scale and efficiency. Considering the intensification of competition in the industry, we slightly lowered the company's 24-26 earnings per share forecast to 0.76/0.85/0.95 (originally 0.78/0.88/0.98 yuan), respectively. The current price corresponding to 24PE is 15X, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Real estate declined beyond expectations, labor costs rose beyond expectations, and exploration of value-added services fell short of expectations.
