醋及料酒同比持平，酱类环比提速，带动24Q3 营收保持平稳增长。分产品来看，单Q3 公司醋收入同比-0.3％，主要是竞争对手加大醋产品布局，行业竞争有所加剧，料酒同样基本持平，而酱类环比放量加速，单Q3 营收同比+26.1％，整体来看调味品三大核心业务单Q3 同比+2.4％，其他调味品产品增速相对更快，最终Q3 整体营收同比+5.6％，保持平稳增长。分渠道来看，公司经销/直销/外贸分别同比+7.1％/-33.2％/+21.7％，同时经销商数目环比净减1 家至2094 家，线上/线下渠道分别同比+3.4％/+5.0％。分区域来看，单Q3 华东/华南/华中/西部/华北大区分别同比+10.2% /+2.2% /+14.8% /-17.0% /-24.5% ，而细分到公司六大战区，单Q3 北部/东部/苏北/苏南/西南/中部战区分别同比-13.0% /+6.2% /+25.7% / +12.4% / -16.8% / +2.1%，整体看核心区域市场表现更优，外埠市场出现一定下滑。Matters:
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 1.531 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.51%; net profit to mother was 0.12 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.08%. 24Q3 achieved revenue of 0.527 billion, up 5.64% year on year; net profit to mother was 26.4545 million, up 79.99% year on year.
Commentary:
Vinegar and cooking wine remained flat year over year, and sauce accelerated month-on-month, driving steady growth in 24Q3. By product, Single Q3's vinegar revenue was -0.3% year on year. The main reason was that competitors increased the layout of vinegar products, and cooking wine also remained flat, while sauce volume accelerated month-on-month, and single Q3 revenue was +26.1% year over year. Overall, the three core condiment businesses, Single Q3, were +2.4% year on year. Other condiment products grew relatively faster. In the end, overall Q3 revenue was +5.6% year on year, maintaining steady growth. By channel, the company's distribution/direct sales/foreign trade were +7.1%/-33.2%/+21.7% year-on-year respectively. At the same time, the number of dealers decreased by 1 to 2,094 month-on-month, and online/offline channels were +3.4%/+5.0% year-on-year, respectively. Looking at the subregions, the East China/South China/Central China/West/North China region was +10.2%/+14.8%/-17.0%/-24.5%, respectively, and subdivided into the company's six major war zones. The single Q3 North/East/Northern Su/Southern Sun/Southwest/Central Warzone were -13.0%/+6.2%/+25.7%/+12.4%/-16.8%/+2.1%. Overall, the market performance of the core region was better, and the foreign port market showed a certain decline.
24Q3 earnings recovered and were in line with expectations. Due to the low base last year, the statement was flexible. The 24Q3 company achieved a gross margin of 35.6%, a sharp increase of 9.5 pcts over the same period last year. The main reason is that the profit base was low due to the company cleaning up redundant SKUs at low prices in the same period last year, and the other is that related price reduction promotion activities have shrunk during the expected period. In terms of expenses, the company recorded a 24Q3 sales expense ratio of 18.8%, +6.0 pcts year on year. Mainly, the base was still relatively low last year, while the management expense ratio was 5.0%, which was basically the same year on year. With R&D expenses being strengthened in new product construction, the 24Q3 cost rate was +0.9 pcts year on year, and the financial expenses rate fluctuated slightly and steadily. In the end, the company achieved a net interest rate of 5.0% to mother in 24Q3, +2.1pcts year over year.
Management adjustments have yet to be tested, and we will continue to monitor channel feedback and potential management changes. Overall, although Q3 achieved a slight positive increase, the company's operating pressure is still under external pressure and internal adjustments. It is expected that Q4 fundamentals will be difficult to improve drastically, and profits are expected to return to a reasonable center. Considering the obvious drag in Q1, it is expected that this year's equity incentive goals will be difficult to achieve. Currently, the company continues to push forward adjustments. On the one hand, it is reshaping the marketing organization structure, promoting channel reform, and stimulating the enthusiasm of sales staff and dealers. However, from the reporting side, it is still necessary to wait for obvious signs of reversal, such as continued acceleration in growth. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the effects of the company's business adjustments in the future, taking into account the general operating mechanism of state-owned enterprises, and focus on potential changes on the management side in the coming year.
Investment advice: Q3 continues to grow, adjustments are still to be tested, and the “recommended” rating is maintained. Considering that external demand is under pressure, it is invaluable to continue steady growth in Q3, but management adjustments have yet to be further tested. The focus is on observing the continuity of the company's growth, and continuing to pay attention to the company's channel feedback and potential management-side changes. In the long term, we are still looking forward to further breaking the ice with deep reforms. We maintained the 24-26 EPS forecast of 0.13/0.16/0.18 yuan, corresponding to a PE of 58/48/42 times. Considering the room for improvement brought about by potential reforms, we gave 50 times PE for 25 years and maintained the target price of 8.0 yuan.
Risk warning: sluggish downstream demand; increased market competition; increased cost investment; food safety issues, etc.
