收入端维持稳定，老客户或主要贡献营收。3Q24 单季度公司收入5.00 亿元，恢复同比正向增长。我们判断3Q24 或延续1H24 趋势，主要由老客户贡献营收增长（1H24 公司e-cology、e-office 业务收入分别同比下滑17.8%/1.5%至3.51/0.09 亿元，以老客户为主的技术服务收入同比+9.4%至5.45 亿元）。我们预计伴随下游需求修复，公司新客户扩展或有所回暖，叠加老客户韧性需求，我们预计2025 年公司收入增速或回升至10%左右。3Q24 results are in line with our expectations
The company announced 3Q24 results: revenue of 0.5 billion yuan, +1.5% year over year; net profit of 0.039 billion yuan to mother, net profit of 0.033 billion yuan after deducting non-return net profit of 0.033 billion yuan, all of which turned a year-on-year loss into profit. 3Q24 The company's expenses were well controlled, profits were released quickly, and the performance was in line with our expectations.
Development trends
The revenue side remains stable, and old customers may be the main contributor to revenue. The company's revenue in a single quarter of 3Q24 was 0.5 billion yuan, and positive year-on-year growth resumed. We judge that 3Q24 or the continuation of the 1H24 trend was mainly due to revenue growth from old customers (1H24's e-cology and e-office business revenue fell 17.8%/1.5% year over year to 0.351/0.009 billion yuan, respectively, and technical service revenue mainly from old customers +9.4% to 0.545 billion yuan). We expect the company's revenue growth rate to rise to around 10% in 2025 as downstream demand recovers, and the company's new customer expansion or recovery, compounded by the resilient needs of old customers.
The effect of improving quality control fees was remarkable, and profits were released quickly. Sales/management/R&D expenses of 3Q24 decreased by 3.9%/72.5%/10.1% year on year to 0.338/0.016/0.081 billion yuan respectively (of which management expenses were mainly affected by the high base of about 0.04 billion yuan of 3Q24 equity incentive expenses. After exclusion, we estimate that 3Q24 R&D expenses remained basically the same year on year), and the cost ratio decreased by 3.8/8.5/2.1ppt to 67.6%/3.2%/16.1%, respectively.
Under strong cost control, the company turned a year-on-year loss into a profit in a single quarter in 3Q24. Considering that the total number of employees in the company's parent company and main subsidiary dropped 14% year on year to 1,672 in 2023, we determine that the company's expenses are expected to continue to be controlled in 4Q24, and the superimposed subsidiary Genyan Network (contract lock) is expected to continue to reduce losses. We expect 4Q24 to still achieve good profit release.
Follow the progress of AI agent product implementation. In 2024, on the basis of gradually improving application scenarios such as intelligent Q&A, smart office, and intelligent tools, the company plans to continue to cultivate in the field of intelligent collaborative management. Through a system architecture combining “RPA+ Agent + LLM”, the company plans to provide users with no-threshold data applications to build natural language interaction to cover the AI application needs of specific fields and scenarios. It is recommended to focus on the introduction progress of the company's AI agent-related products to leading customers.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering that downstream demand recovery was slower than expected, we lowered the company's 2024/2025 revenue by 9.3%/11.2% to 2.402/2.638 billion yuan; considering the company's personnel size and effective cost control, the 2024/2025 profit remained basically unchanged, and the net operating cash flow remained basically unchanged in 2024/2025. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating and target price of 52 yuan (switching the valuation to 32x 2025eP/OCF), there is 28.3% upside compared to the current price, and the current price corresponds to 25x 2025e P/OCF.
risks
Localization falls short of expectations; downstream demand fluctuates; commercialization of AI applications falls short of expectations.
