新签合同额维持较快增长，综合市政、道路工程增速亮眼。2024Q1-3 公司新签合同额657 亿，同比增长9.5%；Q3 单季新签合同额196 亿，同增10.4%，新签订单维持较快增长。分业务看：工程承包累计新签合同额570 亿，同增13.3%（Q3 单季同增13.6%），其中轨道交通/市政工程/能源工程/道路工程/房产工程/其他工程分别新签合同额107/212/79/65/64/17 亿，同比-21%/+43%/+4%/+52%/-17%/-30%，市政包括越江隧道、综合管廊等，道路包括城市快速道、高速公路等，两大板块增速亮眼；设计业务累计新签合同额38 亿，同比下降30%；投资类业务累计新签合同额137 亿，同增71%；运营业务累计新签合同额45 亿，同增4%。分区域看：施工业务中上海市内/上海市外分别新签289/252 亿，同增11%/4%。Revenue was under pressure in the short term, and investment income supported Q3 single-quarter results. 2024Q1-3 achieved revenue of 42.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 9%; net profit attributable to mother of 1.5 billion, an increase of 0.4%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother fell 8.5% and fell 11% in Q3, mainly due to confirmed financial asset disposal revenue of 0.12 billion in the current period. View by quarter:
Q1/Q2/Q3 respectively achieved operating income of 14.1/13.9/14.9 billion yuan, or +5%/-2%/-23%; realized net profit of 0.44/0.34/0.71 billion yuan, +3%/-2%/-0.1% year over year. Q3 revenue declined a lot, mainly due to a slowdown in execution of some infrastructure projects due to capital impact; the decline in performance was significantly less than revenue, mainly due to the increase of 1.65 billion yuan in investment income over the same period in Q3.
Q3 Investment income increased significantly, and operating cash flow improved markedly. 2024Q1-3's gross profit margin was 11.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2 pct. Among them, Q3 gross margin declined a lot in a single quarter, with a year-on-year decrease of 8 pcts. It is expected mainly due to a slowdown in project revenue confirmation, but related costs are ahead. The cost rate for the period was 10.35%, up 1.02 pct year on year (+1.5pct per quarter in Q3). Among them, the sales/management/R&D/finance ratio was basically flat year over year /+0.19/+0.5/+0.3pct (Q3 single quarter was basically flat year-on-year /+0.4/+0.6/+0.6pct), and the sales rate was relatively stable; management and finance rates increased markedly, mainly due to the relative rigidity of costs such as remuneration and interest, and the share of rigid costs increased due to the decline in revenue. Asset (including credit) impairment losses were underestimated by 0.162 billion yuan compared to the same period, and the Q3 quarter was underestimated by about 0.002 billion yuan. Investment income increased by 0.433 billion yuan over the same period last year, with a sharp year-on-year increase of 1.65 billion in Q3. It is expected to be mainly due to the overall rebound in the Q3 capital market, while the company reduced its holdings in XCMC to reap some of its profits (the company's shareholding ratio fell from 4.78% at the end of 24H1 to 4.05% at the end of Q3). The income tax rate increased 0.6 pct year over year. Net interest rate to mother was 3.5%, up 0.3 pct year on year; Q3 single quarter increased 1.1 pct year on year. The net inflow of Q1-3 operating cash flow was 2.4 billion, 2 billion more than the same period last year; Q3 had a net inflow of 6.2 billion dollars in a single quarter, 5.2 billion more inflows compared to the same period, and cash flow improved significantly.
The amount of newly signed contracts has maintained a relatively rapid growth rate, and the growth rate of comprehensive municipal administration and road engineering is impressive. The amount of new contracts signed by 2024Q1-3 was 65.7 billion, an increase of 9.5% over the previous year; the amount of new contracts signed in Q3 was 19.6 billion, an increase of 10.4% over the same period, and new orders maintained a relatively rapid growth rate. By business: The total amount of new contracts signed for engineering contracts was 57 billion, an increase of 13.3% (13.6% in the same quarter in Q3), of which the new contract amount for rail transit/municipal engineering/energy engineering/road engineering/real estate engineering/other projects was 107/212/79/6.5/6.4/1.7 billion, compared to -21%/+43%/+4%/+52%/-17%/-30%. The city includes cross-river tunnels, integrated pipe galleries, etc., and the two major sectors are growing rapidly; The total amount of new contracts signed in the design business was 3.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 30%; the total amount of new contracts signed in the investment business was 13.7 billion, an increase of 71%; and the total amount of new contracts signed in the operating business was 4.5 billion, an increase of 4% over the same period. Looking at the subregions: In the construction business, new contracts of 28.9/25.2 billion were signed in and outside of Shanghai, respectively, an increase of 11%/4%.
Investment advice: We predict that the company's net profit for 2024-2026 will be 3.03/3.11/3.16 billion yuan, up 3.0%/2.6%/1.5% year on year, corresponding EPS of 0.96/0.99/1.00 yuan/share, respectively. The current stock price PE is 7.1/6.9/6.8 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Downside risk of infrastructure investment, risk of falling short of expected payback during operation of PPP and other investment projects, risk of impairment of accounts receivable, etc.
