24Q3，公司实现营收129 亿元，同比+2.32%，环比-2.08%，归母净利润8.51 亿元，同比+20.67%，环比+3.33%，扣非归母净利润8.02 亿元，同比+8.95%，环比-3.51%。单季度毛利率为14.43%，同比-2.43pct，环比-1.41pct。季度毛利率下滑我们预计主要受原材料价格波动和产品结构影响。Key points of investment
Q3 return to mother +21% month-on-month, sufficient orders in hand
In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 34.316 billion yuan, +4.78% year over year; net profit to mother of 2.31 billion yuan, -13.12% year over year; net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of 2.13 billion yuan, or -3.21% year over year. The gross profit margin was 15.83%, -1.25pct year on year, and the net margin was 6.71%, -1.71pct year on year.
In 24Q3, the company achieved revenue of 12.9 billion yuan, +2.32% YoY, -2.08% month-on-month, net profit to mother 0.851 billion yuan, +20.67% YoY, +3.33% month-on-month, net profit of 0.802 billion yuan after deducting non-return to mother net profit of 0.802 billion yuan, +8.95% YoY and -3.51% month-on-month. The gross margin for the single quarter was 14.43%, -2.43pct yoy, and -1.41pct month-on-month. The decline in quarterly gross margin is expected to be mainly affected by fluctuations in raw material prices and product structure.
There are plenty of orders in hand. As of August 27, 2024, the company's on-hand orders in the energy network sector are about 28.2 billion yuan, of which the marine series is about 12.3 billion yuan, grid construction is about 13.1 billion yuan, and new energy is about 2.8 billion yuan. The company's three-quarter contract debt was 2.781 billion yuan, +85% year over year.
Energy network: Electricity is growing steadily, and the ocean breeze business is expected to recover. The impact of multiple factors such as the domestic market, military, and waterways is gradually being eliminated. Jiangsu stock projects are expected to start construction, demand for existing submarine cables is expected to be implemented at an accelerated pace, and the speed of conversion of orders to revenue is expected to accelerate. In overseas markets, the company further improves sales channels, enhances bidding and project management capabilities, and actively connects with overseas ocean wind and power interconnection projects.
New energy: The company has thoroughly laid out the fields of light, storage and hydrogen energy to promote the smooth implementation of a number of “new energy +” projects. The total scale of domestic PV turnkey projects under construction exceeds 800 MW, and overseas PV turnkey projects have started one after another. In the field of energy storage, the company participated in many large-scale energy storage projects with Greece, Germany and other places.
Power grid construction: Demand for UHV continues to be released, and the company maintains a leading position in the market for major power products. It has won bids for many UHV projects from Hami to Chongqing, North Shaanxi to Anhui, etc., and maintains a leading market share.
Communication networks: The industry is booming, and overseas optical cable production capacity is steadily promoting the digital economy and AI driving steady growth of communication network devices. The company has launched products such as leaky cables, low-power 400GDR4 silicon optical modules, four-core optical fiber with insensitive bending, and modular elastic liquid cooling and cooling systems to actively help AI development. Optical fiber cables maintain technological leadership, operate overseas production capacity steadily, strengthen rapid regional delivery capabilities, and consolidate large-scale competitive advantages.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Zhongtian Technology is a domestic optical cable giant. It has formed four major business lines: optical communication+marine+power transmission+new energy. The marine and new energy business is developing rapidly, and the power and optical communication business is growing steadily. In the short term, due to delays in the Sea Breeze project, we expect net profit to be 3.26 billion yuan, 3.927 billion yuan, and 4.638 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026, corresponding to PE 16x in 2024, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Submarine cable demand falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; new energy business expansion falls short of expectations
