3Q24 公司投行业务收入5.0 亿元，同比/环比-61.1%/-10.6%。9M24 公司 IPO/再融资/债券承销规模分别为43.7/35.4/10952.4 亿元，同比-88.5%/-92.3%/-1.8%，市占率分别为9.6%/3.5%/11%，行业排名第3/8/2 名，投行规模稳居行业前列。公司在投行领域资源深厚，关注后续政策变化对于未来投行业务收入的影响。Incident: 10/30, CITIC Construction Investment disclosed its third quarter report. The results were in line with expectations. 9M24 achieved revenue of 14.32 billion yuan, -22.1% YoY; net profit to mother 4.3 billion yuan, -24.5% YoY. 3Q24's revenue was 4.79 billion yuan, -2.7% YoY/-8.5%; net profit to mother was 1.44 billion yuan, +4.0%/-11.7% YoY. The company's weighted average ROE for the first three quarters was 4.71%, compared to -2.34pct in the same period last year.
Dragged down by weakening trading activity in the third quarter, the brokerage business declined slightly from month to month. 9M24's brokerage revenue was 3.74 billion yuan, -13.4% YoY. 3Q24's brokerage revenue was 1.23 billion yuan, -20.2%/-2.9% YoY. The company's customer capital at the end of the period was 114.4 billion yuan, +28.2% compared to the end of H1, and an increase of 21.8% over the beginning of the year. We are optimistic that the increase in trading activity in the fourth quarter will have a positive impact on performance.
The investment banking business is under pressure, and the market share is still at the top of the industry. 9M24's investment banking revenue was 1.5 billion yuan, -61.5% YoY.
3Q24's investment banking revenue was 0.5 billion yuan, -61.1%/-10.6% YoY. 9M24's IPO/refinancing/bond underwriting scale was 4.37/3.54/1095.24 billion yuan respectively, -88.5%/-92.3%/-1.8% compared to the same period, with a market share of 9.6%/3.5%/11%, ranking 3/8/2 in the industry, and the scale of investment banking remained at the forefront of the industry. The company has deep resources in the field of investment banking, and is concerned about the impact of subsequent policy changes on future investment banking business revenue.
Net interest income was under month-on-month pressure, mainly due to a decline in interest income. 9M24's net interest income was 0.45 billion yuan, -70.3% YoY. The 3Q24 company's net interest income was 0.07 billion yuan, -84.5%/-69.4% YoY. At the end of the period, the size of the company's financed/purchased and resold financial assets was 48.515/16.048 billion yuan, respectively, -14.0%/+15.1% compared to the beginning of the year. 9M24's interest expenses were 6.66 billion yuan, -2.7% YoY. At the end of the period, the company's interest-bearing debt was 303.1 billion yuan, +6.8%/+0.4% year over year. The company's operating leverage ratio is 4.35 times, +0.10 times higher than at the end of H1. Credit impairment losses from other debt investments were reversed to increase net profit. At the end of the period, the company's credit impairment returned 0.13 billion yuan, and 3Q24 transferred back 0.22 billion yuan. Follow-up attention will be paid to improving the market risk appetite to boost the two finance business.
The company's slight expansion in the third quarter led to an increase in the level of leverage, and the self-operated business increased significantly over the same period last year. 9M24's net income from proprietary investment was 5.37 billion yuan, +4.5% year-on-year. The net income from 3Q24's own investment was 1.81 billion yuan, +133.8% YoY and -10.1% YoY. The size of the company's financial investment assets/transactional financial assets at the end of the period was 308/232 billion yuan respectively, +6.2%/+8.3% compared to the beginning of the year; the company's investment leverage ratio was 3.04 times, +0.07 times higher than at the beginning of the year. The investment scale of 3Q24's other equity instruments was 3.403 billion yuan, +133.1% compared to the end of H1. We are optimistic about the company's return on investment against the backdrop of rising market sentiment in the fourth quarter.
Investment analysis opinion: The company's overall performance in the first three quarters was in line with our expectations. The investment banking business ranking remains leading, and self-employment and leverage are expected to drive up the fourth quarter's performance. We expect CITIC Construction Investment 24-26E to achieve net profit of 5.7, 6.3, and 6.8 billion yuan, yoy -18%/+9%, maintain the original profit forecast, and maintain CITIC Construction Investment's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Capital market reforms fell short of expectations, and the effect of boosting liquidity in the A-share market fell short of expectations. The market declined sharply, and the growth in the size of the New Development Fund and fund size was weak. On December 29, 2023, the Securities Regulatory Commission issued a notice regarding CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd. signing the administrative enforcement parties' commitment approval agreement. On October 18, 2024, the Securities Regulatory Commission issued a decision to adopt regulatory dialogue measures against CITIC Construction Investment Securities Co., Ltd. and Liu Naisheng, and a decision to issue a warning letter against Jia Xin.
