营收与盈利前三季度同比均有所回升。24Q1-3，公司实现营收140.8 亿元，同比+2.8%，Q3 单季同比+10.2%、环比Q2 单季+11.0%，为55.1 亿元；24Q1-3 公司归母净利润33.0 亿元，同比+15.6%，Q3 单季同比+24.6%、环比Q2 单季-2.8%，为11.9 亿元。24Q1-3,公司自营/经纪/投行/资管/信用业务营收占比分别为31.3%/11.3%/5.9%/7.2%/6.5%，同比分别+10.1/-4.4/-2.8/-4.6/-3.2pct，公司营收结构较上年同期变化显著，自营业务贡献主要营收。Incidents:
On October 30, Orient Securities announced its 2024 three-quarter report. The company achieved revenue of 14.08 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, up 2.8% year on year; net profit to mother was 3.3 billion yuan, up 15.6% year on year; the company's weighted average ROE for the first three quarters of 24 was 4.16%, an increase of 0.49 pct over the same period last year; and basic earnings per share were 0.37 yuan/share.
Comment:
Both revenue and profit rebounded year over year in the first three quarters. With 24Q1-3, the company achieved revenue of 14.08 billion yuan, +2.8% YoY, Q3 +10.2% YoY, Q2 +11.0%, or 5.51 billion yuan; 24Q1-3's net profit to mother was 3.3 billion yuan, +15.6% YoY, Q3 +24.6% YoY, and Q2 -2.8% quarter-on-quarter, 1.19 billion yuan. 24Q1-3, the company's self-employed/brokering/investment banking/asset management/credit business accounted for 31.3%/11.3%/5.9%/7.2%/6.5%, respectively, +10.1/-4.4/-2.8/-4.6/-3.2pct year-on-year, respectively. The company's revenue structure changed significantly over the same period last year, and its own business contributed the main revenue.
The brokerage business continued to be under pressure, and net interest income fell sharply year-on-year in the first three quarters. 24Q1-3, the average daily stock base trading volume of the A-share market was 921 billion yuan, -8.6%; 24Q1-3's net brokerage business revenue was 1.6 billion yuan, -26.0% year over year, -20.0% compared to the same period last year, and -1.5% month-on-month, 0.55 billion yuan, mainly due to the decline in revenue from traditional businesses such as brokerage trading in the A-share market. In terms of credit business, as of the end of September, the balance of the two loans in the city was 1.44 trillion yuan, -9.5%; 24Q1-3's net interest income from credit business was -30.9% YoY, -32.9% compared to the same period last year, and -43.5% month-on-month compared to the Q2 single quarter, or 0.22 billion yuan, mainly due to the decline in external interest rates affecting the company's interest income. In the future, with the improvement of the company's large wealth management system and customer-centered wealth management business organizational structure, the brokerage business is expected to recover its performance.
The investment banking business was under significant pressure, with net revenue of -30.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters. 24Q1-3, the number of IPOs and capital raised in the A-share market was 69 to 47.87 billion yuan, respectively, -73.9%/-85.2% year over year; the number of refinanciers and capital raised was 156 to 183.77 billion yuan, respectively, -60.5%/-72.1% year on year. The scale of market financing declined significantly year on year.
The net revenue of 24Q1-3's investment banking business was affected by the slowdown in the A-share market IPO and refinancing pace. The Q3 single quarter was -37.8% compared to the same period last year, and +3.4% month-on-month, to 0.28 billion yuan. The company's investment banking business revenue declined significantly in the first three quarters.
Proprietary business revenue increased sharply year over year, while asset management business revenue declined significantly year over year. In terms of proprietary business, the size of the company's 24Q1-3 transactional financial assets was -6.2% to 99.18 billion yuan, compared to +2.2% at the end of the previous year. Since this year, bond market earnings have driven proprietary business revenue +51.7% to 4.4 billion yuan. The Q3 single quarter was +84.3% compared to the same period last year, and +20.2% month-on-month, to 1.91 billion yuan. Fluctuations in the securities market led to a year-on-year increase in investment income and fair value of financial instruments, which contributed to the increase in investment business income. Net revenue from 24Q1-3's asset management business was -37.1% to 1.02 billion yuan. The Q3 single quarter was -34.8% compared to the same period last year and -11.1% month-on-month, or 0.31 billion yuan. This was mainly due to public offering fee cuts affecting the company's asset management business revenue in the first three quarters. In the future, with the continuous improvement of the company's asset management product layout, it is expected to further open up room for incremental asset management business.
Profit prediction and rating: As a listed brokerage firm with strong comprehensive strength, the company focuses on the core needs of customers and has a comprehensive and specialized financial business matrix. It is expected to take the lead in benefiting from various capital market reform policies and marginal capital market improvement trends in the future. We forecast that the company's net profit for 24-26 will be 43.3 (up 38.9%) /47.3 (up 44.9%)/50.6 billion yuan (up 43.0%), EPS of 0.51/0.56/0.60 yuan, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 20.39/18.70/17.46 times, respectively, maintaining an “increase” rating.
Risk warning: The downward pressure on the economy is increasing; active capital market reforms fall short of expectations.
