投资分析意见：业绩短期承压，费用率有所优化，维持“增持”评级。新大正作为独立第三方物管公司，战略聚焦非住宅物业管理优质赛道，在学校、公共、航空等业态领域具备长期的管理经验和服务口碑。公司积极招揽众多优秀管理人才，构建多层次激励机制，有望推动公司规模加速提升。考虑到行业竞争加剧，我们下调公司2024-26 年归母净利润预测至1.45、1.58 亿元、1.72 亿元（原1.62、1.72 亿元、1.89 亿元），目前公司24 年PE为16 倍，考虑到公司办公、航空、学校等业态保持行业领先，并全国化布局持续推进，维持“增持”评级。3Q24 revenue was +12% year over year, and net profit to mother was -15% year over year, lower than expected. According to the company's announcement, with 3Q2024, the company achieved operating income of 2.58 billion yuan, +12.4% year on year; net profit to mother of 0.107 billion yuan, -15.2% year over year, lower than expected; net profit not returned to mother was 0.096 billion yuan, or -17.3% year over year. 2024Q3, the company's gross margin and net profit margin were 12.3% and 4.2%, respectively; basic earnings per share were 0.47 yuan, -16.1% year over year; the three expense ratios (financial expense ratio, sales expense ratio, management expense ratio) were 6.9%, -0.1 pct year on year; weighted return on net assets was 8.8%, -2.1 pct year on year; the decline in company performance was mainly due to: 1) being affected by the increase in the social security base in the Chongqing region; 2) increased credit impairment charges as a result of the increase in the size of the company; 3) Affected by the industry Increased competition led to the withdrawal of some projects.
The number of projects under management is growing steadily, and the nationwide layout continues to advance. As of the end of 2024H1, the number of projects managed by the company was 572, +8.8% over the same period last year. The company continues to focus on key central city companies to implement expansion plans, and continues to promote a nationwide business layout. By the end of 2023, the company's projects in regions other than Chongqing and Chongqing accounted for 34.4% and 65.6% respectively. Looking at the share of regional revenue, Chongqing and regions outside Chongqing accounted for 33.6% and 66.4% of revenue respectively, +11% and +20%, respectively. The company's nationwide layout continues to advance.
All business formats have maintained steady growth and continue to explore strategic aviation business formats. According to the company's announcement, 2024H1, by business format, office property, public property, school property, commercial and residential property, and aviation property accounted for 41.98%, 25.10%, 13.40%, 10.06%, and 9.46%, respectively, +24%, +14%, +11%, +7%, and +16%, respectively. By product, revenue from basic properties, innovative businesses, and urban services accounted for 89.6%, 3.0%, and 7.4% respectively, compared with +16%, -18%, and +53%, respectively. Aviation property is the company's strategic business format, 24H1. The company has newly developed various aviation projects such as the Chongqing Aircraft In-flight Service Outsourcing Project, the Nantong Airport Group Property Outsourcing Service Procurement Project, the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport T3A Terminal Arrival Area, and the GTC Property Management Service Outsourcing Project.
Investment analysis opinion: Performance is under pressure in the short term, the cost ratio has been optimized, and the “gain” rating is maintained. As an independent third-party property management company, Shindaisho strategically focuses on high-quality tracks for non-residential property management, and has long-term management experience and service reputation in the fields of schools, public sector, aviation, etc. The company actively recruits many outstanding management talents and establishes a multi-level incentive mechanism, which is expected to accelerate the growth of the company's size. Considering the intensification of competition in the industry, we lowered the company's 2024-26 net profit forecast to 0.145, 0.158 billion yuan, and 0.172 billion yuan (previously 0.162, 0.172 billion yuan, 0.189 billion yuan). Currently, the company's 24-year PE is 16 times. Considering that the company's offices, aviation, schools and other business formats maintain industry leadership, and the national layout continues to advance, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning: Business development falls short of expectations, mergers and acquisitions fall short of expectations, risk of falling profit margins due to rapid rise in labor costs, and the exchange has issued a letter of concern regarding the company's restrictive stock incentives. Currently, the company has not responded.
