火电经营稳步改善，业绩受限于减值影响。三季度，得益于全社会用电稳步增长，虽然水电及新能源电量依然处于高位，但公司煤电依然完成上网电量1,077.04 亿千瓦时，同比仅减少0.29%；燃机完成上网电量88.03 亿千瓦时，同比增长8.69%。电价方面，公司前三季度中国境内各运行电厂平均上网结算电价为496.27 元/兆瓦时，同比下降2.63%，按上半年电量及电价测算，则三季度公司平均上网电价为492.35 元/兆瓦时，同比下降1.6%，考虑到低价新能源占比的提升影响，火电电价或维持稳定。成本方面，三季度秦皇岛港Q5500 动力末煤平仓价均值相较去年同期下降约18.10 元/吨，公司燃料成本也将同比回落。而公司三季度煤机利润总额为25.88 亿元，同比减少8.97%，回落主因系三季度公司计提济宁电厂7.27 亿元资产减值影响，若将减值加回，则三季度煤机利润总额为33.15 亿元，同比增长16.60%，三季度煤机度电利润总额也将达到0.0308 元/千瓦时，同比增长0.0045 元/千瓦时。此外受农安生物质发电厂计提资产减值4.09 亿元影响，公司生物质三季度亏损4.09 亿元，亏损扩大3.92 亿元；燃机三季度利润总额为2.86 亿元，同比下降18.52%，进一步限制了火电的业绩表现。Description of the event
The company released its three-quarter report for 2024: in the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 65.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.46%; realized net profit to mother of 2.959 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.69%.
Incident comments
Thermal power operations have been improving steadily, and performance has been limited by impairment. In the third quarter, thanks to the steady increase in electricity consumption throughout society, although the amount of hydropower and new energy power is still high, the company's coal power still completed 107.704 billion kilowatt-hours of feed-in electricity, a decrease of only 0.29% over the previous year; combustion engines completed 8.803 billion kilowatt-hours of feed-in electricity, an increase of 8.69% over the previous year. In terms of electricity prices, the average online settlement price for the company's operating power plants in China in the first three quarters was 496.27 yuan/megawatt-hour, down 2.63% from the previous year. Based on the electricity volume and electricity prices in the first half of the year, the company's average feed-in price in the third quarter was 492.35 yuan/megawatt-hour, down 1.6% year on year. Considering the impact of the increase in the share of low-cost new energy sources, thermal power prices may remain stable. In terms of cost, the average Q5500 coal liquidation price at Qinhuangdao Port in the third quarter decreased by about 18.10 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year, and the company's fuel costs will also fall year-on-year. Meanwhile, the company's total coal machine profit for the third quarter was 2.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.97%. The main reason for the decline was the impact of the asset impairment of the Jining Power Plant's 0.727 billion yuan in the third quarter. If the impairment was added back, the total profit of coal mills in the third quarter was 3.315 billion yuan, an increase of 16.60% year over year. The total electricity profit of coal machines in the third quarter will also reach 0.0308 yuan/kilowatt-hour, an increase of 0.0045 yuan/kilowatt-hour over year. Furthermore, due to the depreciation of 0.409 billion yuan of the Nong'an biomass power plant's accrued assets, the company lost 0.409 billion yuan in the third quarter, and the loss increased by 0.392 billion yuan; the total profit of combustion engines in the third quarter was 0.286 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.52%, further limiting thermal power's performance.
New energy boosts domestic profit growth, and the company's performance is limited by a high base. In the first three quarters, the company added a total of 1.4675 million kilowatts of wind power installations and 3.7531 million kilowatts of photovoltaic installations. Driven by the rapid growth of new energy installed capacity, the company completed 7.951 billion kilowatt-hours of wind power in the third quarter, an increase of 25.65% year-on-year, and an increase of 23.85 percentage points month-on-month; PV completed feed-in capacity of 5.685 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 71.06% year-on-year, and a slight decrease of 3.51 percentage points from month to month. The operating pressure on the wind power business was significantly relieved. As a result, the company achieved a total wind power profit of 1.17 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 75.68% over the previous year; PV achieved a total profit of 1.185 billion yuan, an increase of 44.16% over the previous year. Overall, although the thermal power business was affected by depreciation and operating pressure, driven by rapid growth in the new energy business, the company's domestic business still achieved a total profit of 4.887 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 4.09% over the previous year. In terms of overseas business, the market share of Singapore Dashi Energy Co., Ltd., which is wholly owned by the company, was 18.6% in the third quarter, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous year. At the same time, considering that electricity prices in Singapore have declined since this year, the company's overseas business performance also declined somewhat. Furthermore, due to one-time revenue generated in the third quarter of last year due to the delivery of hydropower in Sichuan, there was a high base impact; in the third quarter, the company incurred non-operating expenses of 0.639 billion yuan, an increase of 0.579 billion yuan over the previous year, further limiting the company's performance. Overall, the company achieved net profit of 2.959 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 52.69%; net profit without deduction of 2.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.18%.
Investment advice: According to the latest financial data, we expect the company's EPS in 2024-2026 to be 0.73 yuan, 0.89 yuan and 0.99 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 9.93 times, 8.16 times, and 7.36 times, respectively. Maintain the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. There is a risk that electricity supply and demand will deteriorate;
2. There is an unseasonal risk in coal prices.
