现金流宽裕，计划于港股上市：①截止至三季度，公司资产负债率为50.74%；在手货币资金23.98 亿元，同比+84.13%；在手存货24.50 亿元，同比+1.15%；②公司于2024 年8 月29 日向香港联交所递交了公司发行H 股股票并在香港联交所主板挂牌上市的申请。The company released three quarterly reports: achieved revenue of 6.223 billion yuan in the first three quarters, +22.93% year over year; realized net profit of 1.105 billion yuan, +112.59% year over year; realized net profit deducted from non-mother was 1.038 billion yuan, +84.35% year over year. The company achieved revenue of 2.027 billion yuan in 24Q3, -13.47% month-on-month; 24Q3 achieved net profit of 0.395 billion yuan, and Q3 realized -22.61% month-on-month; 24Q3 achieved net profit of 0.399 billion yuan without return to mother, and -8.13% month-on-month in Q3. In terms of metal prices, the average price of Shanghai and Gold Q2/Q3 was 555/571 yuan/gram, respectively, +2.84% month-on-month in Q3, and the average price of Comex gold Q2/Q3 was 2353/2498 US dollars/ounce, respectively, and +6.15% month-on-month in Q3. The company's third quarter performance declined, mainly due to a decrease in mineral gold production and sales.
Exploiting existing resources, production and sales increased: in the first three quarters of this year, the company's gold production reached 10.75 tons, +5.05% year over year, sales volume reached 10.95 tons, +4.95% year over year. Among them, Q1/Q2/Q3 production was 3.59/3.97/3.20 tons, Q3 -19.37% month-on-month, Q1/Q2/Q3 sales volume was 3.58/4.01/3.36, and Q3 -16.29% month-on-month. The company's Q3 gold production and sales decreased month-on-month, mainly due to the two overseas mines in the rainy season impact.
The strategic focus changed, and the cost reduction effect was obvious: in the first three quarters of this year, the company achieved a full maintenance cost of 285.53 yuan/gram, +3.09% year over year; sales cost was 281.55 yuan/gram, -1.68% year over year. Looking at the subregion, in the first three quarters, domestic mine sales cost was 171.16 yuan/gram, +16.72% year over year. Although the cost advantage was outstanding; Vientiane mining sales cost was 1482.97 US dollars/ounce, -4.95% year over year; Venus Vasa sales cost was 1278.69 US dollars/ounce, -1.65% year over year. Looking ahead, the cost of the company's two overseas mines is expected to have room for further optimization.
We have abundant cash flow and are scheduled to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange: ① As of the third quarter, the company's balance ratio was 50.74%; current cash capital was 2.398 billion yuan, +84.13% year over year; current inventory was 2.45 billion yuan, +1.15% year over year; ② The company submitted an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to issue H shares and list it on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on August 29, 2024.
Risk warning: Project construction progress falls short of expectations; gold prices have declined sharply; production costs have risen sharply; asset impairment has exceeded expectations.
Investment advice: Maintain an “better than the market” rating.
The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 89.56/109.50/128.59 billion yuan (original forecast 91.85/108.53/124.58) billion yuan, respectively; net profit to mother is 16.97/22.01/25.05 (original forecast 17.82/21.76/24.29) billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 111.0%/29.7%/13.8%, respectively; diluted EPS is 1.02/1.32/ 1.51 yuan, current stock price corresponding PE is 20/15/13X. Considering the company's firm pace of international development, gold production is expected to continue to grow, and there is room for reduction in production costs. It enjoys high profit flexibility for gold prices and maintains a “superior to the market” rating.
