货物吞吐量保持增长，集装箱板块表现亮眼。2024 年1-9 月，公司及其分公司、子公司、合营及联营公司合计完成货物吞吐量5.33 亿吨，同比增长5.7%；分季度来看，2024 年Q1、Q2、Q3 分别完成货物吞吐量1.72、1.82、1.79 亿吨，同比增速分别为6.9%、6.4%、3.9%。2024 年1-9 月，公司及其分公司、子公司、合营及联营公司合计完成集装箱吞吐量2413 万标准箱，同比增长8.0%；分季度来看，2024 年Q1、Q2、Q3 分别完成集装箱吞吐量767、815、831 万标准箱，同比增速分别为11.5%、6.7%、6.3%。公司坚持陆海联动，海向增航线、拓中转，陆向开班列、拓货源，2024 年上半年，公司新增集装箱航线8 条，中转箱量同比增长14.2%，新增9 个内陆港，开通6 条海铁联运班列，海铁联运箱量同比增长13.4%，集装箱板块后续发展潜力较大。Qingdao Port released its report for the third quarter of 2024 on October 30, 2024:
In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 13.978 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.34%; net profit to mother of 3.931 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.78%; net cash flow from operating activities of 3.122 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.50%; basic earnings per share of 0.61 yuan, an increase of 3.78%; and a weighted average return on net assets of 9.45%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.35 percentage points.
In the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 4.911 billion yuan, up 9.10% year on year and 5.89% month on month; net profit to mother was 1.29 billion yuan, up 5.31% year on year, down 2.66% month on month.
Cargo throughput continued to grow, and the container sector performed well. From January to September 2024, the company and its branches, subsidiaries, joint ventures and joint ventures completed a total cargo throughput of 0.533 billion tons, up 5.7% year on year. On a quarterly basis, Q1, Q2, and Q3 completed cargo throughput of 0.172, 0.182, and 0.179 billion tons respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.9%, 6.4%, and 3.9%, respectively. From January to September 2024, the company and its branches, subsidiaries, joint ventures and joint ventures completed a total container throughput of 24.13 million TEUs, up 8.0% year on year. On a quarterly basis, Q1, Q2, and Q3 completed container throughput of 7.67, 8.15, and 8.31 million TEU respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.5%, 6.7%, and 6.3%, respectively. The company insists on land and sea linkage, increasing routes and transit routes from sea to sea, and expanding supplies. In the first half of 2024, the company added 8 new container routes, increasing the volume of transit containers by 14.2% year-on-year, adding 9 inland ports, and opening 6 sea-rail intermodal trains. Sea-rail intermodal transport volume increased 13.4% year on year, and the container sector has great potential for future development.
The asset restructuring process is expected to accelerate, and consolidation dividends are expected to continue to be released. The company plans to acquire 100% of the oil company shares held by the Rizhao Port Group, 50.00% of Rizhao Shihua's shares, 53.88% of the shares of Joint Pipeline and 51.00% of the shares of Gangyuan Pipeline held by the Yantai Port Group through the issuance of shares and payment of cash. This restructuring is an important step in port integration in Shandong Province. The assets to be acquired have a significant synergy effect with the company's existing liquid bulk terminal related business, helping the company improve the geographical layout of the port area, integrate customer resources, expand business scale and market share, and reduce competition within the Shandong Port Group. On September 26, 2024, the company received the “Notice on Accepting Applications for the Issuance of Shares by Qingdao Port International Co., Ltd. to Purchase Assets and Raise Supporting Funds” (Shanghai Stock Exchange (M&A) (2024) No. 25) issued by the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The transaction is subject to approval by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the consent of the China Securities Regulatory Commission before it can be implemented. Benefiting from the introduction of the New Deal, the speed of implementation is expected to accelerate in the future.
To improve quality and efficiency, it is proposed to pay mid-term dividends. The company has formulated and issued the “3-Year Shareholder Dividend Return Plan for the period 2022 to 2024”, promising that the annual cash dividend will not be less than 40% of the profit that can be used to distribute the current year. On October 18, 2024, the company issued the “Notice on the 2024 Mid-Term Profit Distribution Plan”. It plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.1,134 yuan (tax included) per share. The amount of the interim cash dividend accounts for about 35% of the company's profits that can be used to distribute profits in the first half of 2024. On October 30, 2024, the company issued the “Action Plan for Improving Quality and Efficiency”, which proposes “implementing the new “Nine National Rules” requirements, firmly establishing the concept of shareholder return, establishing a continuous, stable and scientific shareholder return mechanism, implementing a three-year shareholder dividend return plan for 2025-2024, studying and formulating a three-year shareholder dividend return plan for 2025-2027, and exploring multiple years of dividends to enhance investors' sense of acquisition.” etc. content.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating: Without considering the company's proposed asset restructuring, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 5.185, 5.527, and 5.904 billion yuan in 2024-2026 (previous values: 5.419, 6.014, and 6.593 billion yuan), with earnings per share of 0.80, 0.85, and 0.91 yuan, respectively. The current stock price is 8.27 yuan. The corresponding PE is 10.4X/9.7X/9.1X, respectively, to maintain the “buy” evaluation grade.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn risk, hinterland economic fluctuation risk, industry rate adjustment risk, port integration falling short of expectations, risk of model assumptions and calculation errors, risk of untimely information data updates.