产销量方面，截至9 月27 日，重点监测省份生产企业库存6381 万重箱，较6月末上升902 万重箱，上升幅度达16.5%。累库主因下游深加工厂订单相对较弱，根据隆众资讯数据，9 月底玻璃深加工企业订单天数为13.6 天，仍低于去年同期33%以上的水平。The company released its 2024 three-quarter report: 24Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 11.6 billion yuan, +3.72% year over year, net profit to mother of 0.699 billion yuan, 43.77% year on year, net profit of 0.623 billion yuan after deducting non-return net profit of 0.623 billion yuan, or -45.21% year on year.
Among them, 24Q3 achieved revenue of 3.689 billion yuan, or -14.21% of the same period, net profit to mother of -0.112 billion yuan. The same period last year was 0.596 billion yuan, after deducting net profit not attributable to mother of -0.137 billion yuan, compared to 0.575 billion yuan in the same period last year. 24Q3 gross profit margin 7.69%, year-on-year -20.01pct, month-on-month -14.87pct.
The amount and price of float glass are under pressure:
In terms of production and sales volume, as of September 27, the focus was on monitoring the inventory of 63.81 million heavy boxes in the province, up 9.02 million heavy boxes from the end of June, an increase of 16.5%. Due to relatively weak orders from downstream deep processing plants, the number of order days for glass deep processing companies at the end of September was 13.6 days, which is still lower than 33% in the same period last year.
In terms of price, according to data from Zhuochuang Information, the average price of float glass nationwide in 24Q3 was 1,418 yuan/ton, -30.3% YoY and -16.7% YoY.
In terms of cost, the average price of the 24Q3 national heavy soda ash market was 2012 yuan/ton, -18.2% year-on-year, -4.6% month-on-month, and the price of petroleum coke was -22.3% year-on-year and -10.9% month-on-month.
Although the pressure on raw material costs has abated, the 24Q3 float glass price is under strong downward pressure, and the industry is still in the warehouse stage. Therefore, we expect that the 24Q3 gross profit margin, net profit per box, and month-on-month decline of the company's 24Q3 float glass business will all be significant. The overall gross margin of the 24Q3 company is -20.01 pct year-on-year and -14.87 pct month-on-month.
The price of photovoltaic glass Q3 is falling month by month. Focus on the supply side of the industry to clear space:
In terms of price, the price of 24Q3 photovoltaic glass showed a monthly downward trend. According to Zhuochuang information data, the average price of 3.2mm coated glass dropped from 24.5 yuan/flat at the end of June to 21 yuan/flat in September. The average price of 3.2mm coated glass in the third quarter was 22.81 yuan/square meter, -11.4% year-on-year and -11.2% month-on-month. Judging the main factors: ① PV glass manufacturers have high inventories and continued supply-side pressure; ② terminal demand support is limited.
According to the official website of the Jiangsu Photovoltaic Industry Association, leading photovoltaic glass companies took the lead in early September, and the top ten photovoltaic glass companies met to agree to cut furnace production by 30%, mainly due to the decline in PV glass prices month by month since Q3. Cold repair in the industry accelerated markedly in July-August. In July-October, the industry had a total of 19 cold repair production lines and a cold repair production capacity of 10,250 tons. In addition, in July-September, the industry blocked kilns and reduced production volume by about 8177 tons per day (data source: Longzhong Information). We estimate that the marginal exit rate was around 16.1%. In July 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “PV Manufacturing Industry Specification Conditions (2024 version)”, which proposes comprehensive electricity consumption and reduced electricity consumption requirements for existing and remodeled projects of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells and modules. Supply-side policies are expected to accelerate the elimination of high-energy production capacity in the photovoltaic industry, and photovoltaic glass will also benefit.
Investment suggestions: ① The company leads the industry in terms of original float glass costs and management advantages, and waits for insurance buildings+guaranteed housing to continue to advance and ease the pressure on real estate completion; ② PV glass hits the first echelon, and the cost advantage is expected to replicate the float experience and focus on the industry's supply-side policies; ③ the price of raw soda ash is falling, and the cost pressure is relieved.
We expect the company's net profit to be 0.72, 1.026, and 1.316 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026, and the dynamic PE corresponding to the current price is 25, 18, and 14X, respectively, to maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: completion demand falls short of expectations; PV module production schedule falls short of expectations; raw materials and fuel prices fluctuate.
