多因素推动Q3 单季净利大增：（1）23Q3 对新冠相关产品资产计提减值，基期较低；（2）公司产品结构同比变化，Q3 毛利率同比提升2.5 个百分点，环比提升0.4 个百分点；（3）公司费用端优化，Q3 期间费用率42.7%,同比下降5.8 个百分点，其中销售费用率下降0.9 个百分点，主要是对新冠团队优化，管理费用率下降1.7 个百分点，研发费用率下降3.5 个百分点，主要是对部分研发管线进行优化。Conclusions and recommendations:
Company performance: In 24Q1-Q3, the company achieved revenue of 30.91 billion yuan, YOY +0.7%, recorded net profit of 2.01 billion yuan, YOY -11.9%, net profit after deduction of 1.84 billion yuan, YOY +24.6%. The company's net profit after deducting non-net profit was slightly better than expected. Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 10.45 billion yuan in a single quarter, YOY +12.3%, recorded net profit of 0.79 billion yuan, YOY +55.4%, net profit of 0.58 billion yuan after deducting non-return to mother, and YOY +474.8%.
Steady growth in non-COVID-19 products: Excluding COVID-related businesses, the company's actual revenue increased by about 5.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, mainly driven by steady growth in innovative drugs. Among them, the antiemetic product Okanze, a potassium-competitive acid blocker product, stable and long-lasting recombinant human granulocyte colony stimulating factor product Pekin, an anti-tumor PD-1 product, and the CAR-T drug Eikaida all achieved rapid growth.
Multiple factors contributed to a sharp increase in Q3's net profit in a single quarter: (1) 23Q3 depreciated assets for COVID-related products, with a lower base period; (2) changes in the company's product structure, Q3 gross margin increased 2.5 percentage points year over year and 0.4 percentage points month over month; (3) company cost side optimization, the cost rate during the Q3 period was 42.7%, down 5.8 percentage points year on year, with sales expenses falling 0.9 percentage points, mainly optimization for the COVID-19 team. The management fee ratio decreased by 1.7 percentage points, and the R&D expenses rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points, mainly Some R&D pipelines have been optimized.
Research and development of innovative drugs continued to advance: in the third quarter, several products were approved for marketing or marketing applications were accepted. The company's trastuzumab was approved for marketing in Canada, injectable botulinum toxin (Daxifil) was approved for domestic marketing. It is expected to be sold next year, and the application for the marketing of SBK010 oral solution to treat stroke was accepted. In terms of research and development progress, HLX11 (recombinant anti-HER2 domain II humanized monoclonal antibody) has reached the main phase III clinical study end, HLX53 (Fc fusion protein against TIGIT) has entered phase II clinical trials, and the international multicenter phase III clinical trial for first-line treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer has been approved in Japan. In addition, the company's 23-valent pneumonia and human diploid rabies vaccines have also been approved for domestic clinical trials.
Profit forecast: Looking forward to the future, the company's innovative products will enter the harvest period one after another. The revenue structure will be continuously optimized. The international layout will also open up space for future growth. The company is also actively optimizing R&D pipelines, assets and financial structure. We are optimistic about the company's future development. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 2.9 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 4.1 billion yuan, YOY +20.2%, +22.5%, and +17.3% respectively; EPS is 1.1 yuan, 1.3 yuan, and 1.5 yuan respectively; the corresponding A share PE is 24X/20X/17X, and the corresponding H share PE is 12X/10X/9X respectively. The valuation of A shares is reasonable, and H shares are undervalued. We give A/H shares an investment rating of “buy”.
Risk warning: New product development progress falls short of expectations, drug collection and national negotiations have exceeded expectations, risk of impairment of goodwill
